气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions

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DOI	10.1126/science.abc9004
	Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions
	Ali S.T.; Wang L.; Lau E.H.Y.; Xu X.-K.; Du Z.; Wu Y.; Leung G.M.; Cowling B.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	1106
结束页码	1109
卷号	369 期号:6507
英文摘要	Studies of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters, including serial interval distributions—i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain—and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 shortened substantially from 7.8 to 2.6 days within a month (9 January to 13 February 2020). This change was driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, particularly case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve our ability to assess transmission dynamics, forecast future incidence, and estimate the impact of control measures. Copyright © 2020 The Authors,
英文关键词	database; epidemic; estimation method; real time; reproduction; respiratory disease; viral disease; Article; coronavirus disease 2019; cultural factor; geographic distribution; human; infection control; infection rate; infection risk; intervention study; priority journal; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; social isolation; symptom; virus infectivity; virus shedding; virus transmission; basic reproduction number; Betacoronavirus; China; Coronavirus infection; forecasting; incidence; pandemic; patient isolation; time factor; virus pneumonia; China; Coronavirus; SARS coronavirus; Basic Reproduction Number; Betacoronavirus; China; Coronavirus Infections; Forecasting; Humans; Incidence; Pandemics; Patient Isolation; Pneumonia, Viral; Time Factors
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/242796
作者单位	WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EH, United Kingdom; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, 75015, France; College of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian Minzu University, Dalian, 116600, China; Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78705, United States; School of Journalism and Communication, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Computational Communication Research Center, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, 519087, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ali S.T.,Wang L.,Lau E.H.Y.,et al. Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions[J],2020,369(6507).
APA	Ali S.T..,Wang L..,Lau E.H.Y..,Xu X.-K..,Du Z..,...&Cowling B.J..(2020).Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions.Science,369(6507).
MLA	Ali S.T.,et al."Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions".Science 369.6507(2020).