气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.007
	Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios
	Deng Jie; Che Tao; Jiang Tong; Dai Li-Yun
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1674-9278
起始页码	224
结束页码	239
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	Ski tourism is extremely sensitive to climate change and is also heavily affected by socioeconomic conditions. Although some ski areas are still profitable under current climate and socioeconomic conditions, they will become difficult to operate in the face of rising winter temperatures, which will result in further economic losses, resource waste and environmental damage. This study projects variability in the suitability of ski area development across China in the coming decades. Natural suitability under three representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), socioeconomic suitability under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5) and integrated suitability under four climatic-socioeconomic scenarios (RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5) are reported. Furthermore, the suitability of 731 existing ski areas in China is assessed. The results show a substantial decline in integrated suitability for most regions of China except for some very cold areas, where higher air temperatures will make visitors feel more comfortable and the relatively poor socioeconomic conditions will improve in the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s. The average higher integrated suitability area (integrated suitability values greater than 0.5) under four climatic-socioeconomic scenarios decreases from the current 29.9%-14.4%, 5.0% and 4.5% by the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Under RCP2.6-SSP1, the higher integrated suitability area is projected to decrease from the current 28.0%-5.2% by the 2050s and then increase to 5.3% by the 2090s. Under RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5, the higher integrated suitability area is projected to continuously decrease from 30.3%, 30.6% and 30.6% in the 2010s to 4.1%, 4.4% and 4.4% in the 2090s, respectively. By the 2090s, 41, 138 and 277 existing ski areas are projected to be closed under RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3/RCP8.5-SSP5, respectively. It is clear that emission pathways and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies will greatly shape the development of China's regional ski tourism.
英文关键词	Suitability; Ski tourism; Climate change; Socioeconomic development; China
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS关键词	WINTER TOURISM DESTINATIONS ; AGENT-BASED MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SNOW RELIABILITY ; BEHAVIORAL ADAPTATION ; IMPACT ; VARIABILITY ; POPULATION ; SNOWMAKING ; DEMAND
WOS记录号	WOS:000654345800007
来源期刊	ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/241038
作者单位	[Deng Jie; Che Tao; Dai Li-Yun] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Remote Sensing Gansu Prov, Heihe Remote Sensing Expt Res Stn, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Deng Jie; Che Tao] Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; [Deng Jie] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; [Jiang Tong] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China; [Dai Li-Yun] Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deng Jie,Che Tao,Jiang Tong,et al. Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,12(2).
APA	Deng Jie,Che Tao,Jiang Tong,&Dai Li-Yun.(2021).Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,12(2).
MLA	Deng Jie,et al."Suitability projection for Chinese ski areas under future natural and socioeconomic scenarios".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 12.2(2021).