气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0721.1
	Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere
	Peng, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Tingjun; Frauenfeld, Oliver W.; Wang, Kang; Luo, Dongliang; Cao, Bin; Su, Hang; Jin, Huijun; Wu, Qingbai
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0894-8755
EISSN	1520-0442
起始页码	251
结束页码	266
卷号	31 期号:1
英文摘要	Variability of active layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions is critical for assessments of climate change, water resources, and engineering applications. Detailed knowledge of ALT variations is also important for studies on ecosystem, hydrological, and geomorphological processes in cold regions. The primary objective of this study is therefore to provide a comprehensive 1971-2000 climatology of ALT and its changes across the entire Northern Hemisphere from 1850 through 2100. To accomplish this, in situ observations, the Stefan solution based on a thawing index, and the edaphic factor (E factor) are employed to calculate ALT. The thawing index is derived from (i) the multimodel ensemble mean of 16 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over 1850-2005, (ii) three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for 2006-2100, and (iii) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) gridded observations for 1901-2014. The results show significant spatial variability in in situ ALT that generally ranges from 40 to 320 cm, with some extreme values of 900 cm in the Alps. The differences in the ALT climatology between the three RCPs and the historical experiments ranged from 0 to 200 cm. The biggest increases, of 120-200 cm, are on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while the smallest increases of less than 20 cm are in Alaska. Averaged over all permafrost regions, mean ALT from CMIP5 increased significantly at 0.57 +/- 0.04 cm decade(-1) during 1850-2005, while 2006-2100 projections show ALT increases of 0.77 +/- 0.08 cm decade(-1) for RCP2.6, 2.56 +/- 0.07 cm decade(-1) for RCP4.5, and 6.51 +/- 0.07 cm decade(-1) for RCP8.5.
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS关键词	SEASONAL SNOW COVER ; HEIHE RIVER-BASIN ; THERMAL REGIME ; SEA-ICE ; PERMAFROST ; CMIP5 ; LAND ; THAW ; TEMPERATURES ; MOUNTAIN
WOS记录号	WOS:000429528800014
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/240311
作者单位	[Peng, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Tingjun; Cao, Bin; Su, Hang] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China; [Frauenfeld, Oliver W.] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Geog, College Stn, TX USA; [Wang, Kang] Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; [Luo, Dongliang; Jin, Huijun; Wu, Qingbai] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Frozen Soil Engn, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Peng, Xiaoqing,Zhang, Tingjun,Frauenfeld, Oliver W.,et al. Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2018,31(1).
APA	Peng, Xiaoqing.,Zhang, Tingjun.,Frauenfeld, Oliver W..,Wang, Kang.,Luo, Dongliang.,...&Wu, Qingbai.(2018).Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(1).
MLA	Peng, Xiaoqing,et al."Spatiotemporal Changes in Active Layer Thickness under Contemporary and Projected Climate in the Northern Hemisphere".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.1(2018).