气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Causality of climate, food production and conflict over the last two millennia in the Hexi Corridor, China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136587
	Causality of climate, food production and conflict over the last two millennia in the Hexi Corridor, China
	Yang, Linshan; Feng, Qi; Adamowski, Jan F.; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Yin, Zhenliang; Wen, Xiaohu; Tang, Xia; Wu, Min
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
卷号	713
英文摘要	The relationship between climate and human society has frequently been investigated to ascertain whether climate variability can trigger social crises (e.g., migration and armed conflicts). In the current study, statistical methods (e.g., correlation analysis and Granger Causality Analysis) are used in a systematic analysis of the potential causality of climate variability on migration and armed conflicts. Specifically, the statistical methods are applied to determine the relationships between long-term fine-grained temperature and precipitation data and contemporary social conditions, gleaned from historical documents covering the last two millennia in China's Hexi Corridor. Results found the region's reconstructed temperature to be strongly coupled with precipitation dynamics, i.e., a warming climate was associated with a greater supply of moisture, whereas a cooling period was associated with more frequent drought. A prolonged cold period tended to coincide with societal instability, such as a shift from unification towards fragmentation. In contrast, a prolonged warm period coincided with rapid development, i.e., a shift from separation to unification. The statistical significance of the causality linkages between climate variability, bio-productivity, grain yield, migration and conflict suggests that climate variability is not the direct causative agent of these phenomena, but that climate reduced food production which gradually lead to migration and conflicts. A conceptual causal model developed through this study describes the causative pathway of climate variability impacts on migration and conflicts in the Hexi Corridor. Applied to current conditions, the model suggests that steady and proactive promotion of the nation's economic buffering capacity might best address the uncertainty brought on by a range of potential future climate scenarios and their potential impacts. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate variability; Food production; Migration; Conflict; The Hexi Corridor
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS关键词	HEIHE RIVER ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; IMPACTS ; PRECIPITATION ; FLUCTUATIONS ; ADAPTATION ; ENERGY
WOS记录号	WOS:000514544700026
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/239350
作者单位	[Yang, Linshan; Feng, Qi; Yin, Zhenliang; Wen, Xiaohu; Tang, Xia; Wu, Min] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Ecohydrol Inland River Basin, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Adamowski, Jan F.] McGill Univ, Fac Agr & Environm Sci, Dept Bioresource Engn, Montreal, PQ H9X 3V9, Canada; [Deo, Ravinesh C.] Univ Southern Queensland, Sch Sci, Ctr Appl Climate Sci, Springfield, Qld 4300, Australia; [Deo, Ravinesh C.] Univ Southern Queensland, Ctr Sustainable Agr Syst, Inst Life Sci & Environm, Springfield, Qld 4300, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Linshan,Feng, Qi,Adamowski, Jan F.,et al. Causality of climate, food production and conflict over the last two millennia in the Hexi Corridor, China[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2020,713.
APA	Yang, Linshan.,Feng, Qi.,Adamowski, Jan F..,Deo, Ravinesh C..,Yin, Zhenliang.,...&Wu, Min.(2020).Causality of climate, food production and conflict over the last two millennia in the Hexi Corridor, China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,713.
MLA	Yang, Linshan,et al."Causality of climate, food production and conflict over the last two millennia in the Hexi Corridor, China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 713(2020).