气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Measuring the scientific effectiveness of contact tracing: Evidence from a natural experiment

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2100814118
	Measuring the scientific effectiveness of contact tracing: Evidence from a natural experiment
	Fetzer T.; Graeber T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:33
英文摘要	Contact tracing has for decades been a cornerstone of the public health approach to epidemics, including Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and now COVID-19. It has not yet been possible, however, to causally assess the method's effectiveness using a randomized controlled trial of the sort familiar throughout other areas of science. This study provides evidence that comes close to that ideal. It exploits a large-scale natural experiment that occurred by accident in England in late September 2020. Because of a coding error involving spreadsheet data used by the health authorities, a total of 15,841 COVID-19 cases (around 20% of all cases) failed to have timely contact tracing. By chance, some areas of England were much more severely affected than others. This study finds that the random breakdown of contact tracing led to more illness and death. Conservative causal estimates imply that, relative to cases that were initially missed by the contact tracing system, cases subject to proper contact tracing were associated with a reduction in subsequent new infections of 63% and a reduction insubsequent COVID-19-related deaths of 66% across the 6 wk following the data glitch. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Contact tracing; COVID-19; Infectious diseases; Public health
语种	英语
scopus关键词	accidents and accident related phenomena; Article; contact examination; coronavirus disease 2019; disease severity; England; human; large scale production; major clinical study; mortality rate; pandemic; public health service; contact examination; cooperation; epidemiology; incidence; information processing; information retrieval; measurement accuracy; mortality; pandemic; prevention and control; procedures; program evaluation; software; time factor; Contact Tracing; Cooperative Behavior; COVID-19; COVID-19 Testing; Data Accuracy; Data Collection; England; Humans; Incidence; Information Storage and Retrieval; Pandemics; Program Evaluation; SARS-CoV-2; Software; Time Factors
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238829
作者单位	Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy Research Centre, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, United Kingdom; Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02163, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fetzer T.,Graeber T.. Measuring the scientific effectiveness of contact tracing: Evidence from a natural experiment[J],2021,118(33).
APA	Fetzer T.,&Graeber T..(2021).Measuring the scientific effectiveness of contact tracing: Evidence from a natural experiment.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(33).
MLA	Fetzer T.,et al."Measuring the scientific effectiveness of contact tracing: Evidence from a natural experiment".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.33(2021).