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DOI10.1073/pnas.2108900118
China’s low fertility may not hinder future prosperity
Marois G.; Gietel-Basten S.; Lutz W.
发表日期2021
ISSN0027-8424
卷号118期号:40
英文摘要China’s low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure–based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong—especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called “productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio” can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词Aging; China; Dependency ratio; Fertility; Human capital
语种英语
scopus关键词age distribution; aging; article; China; demography; education; fertility; human; human experiment; mental capacity; productivity; reasoning; workforce
来源期刊Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238789
作者单位Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China; Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, University of Vienna, VID/ÖAW–International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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Marois G.,Gietel-Basten S.,Lutz W.. China’s low fertility may not hinder future prosperity[J],2021,118(40).
APA Marois G.,Gietel-Basten S.,&Lutz W..(2021).China’s low fertility may not hinder future prosperity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(40).
MLA Marois G.,et al."China’s low fertility may not hinder future prosperity".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.40(2021).
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