气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): China’s low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2108900118
	China’s low fertility may not hinder future prosperity
	Marois G.; Gietel-Basten S.; Lutz W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:40
英文摘要	China’s low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure–based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong—especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called “productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio” can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Aging; China; Dependency ratio; Fertility; Human capital
语种	英语
scopus关键词	age distribution; aging; article; China; demography; education; fertility; human; human experiment; mental capacity; productivity; reasoning; workforce
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238789
作者单位	Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China; Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, University of Vienna, VID/ÖAW–International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marois G.,Gietel-Basten S.,Lutz W.. China’s low fertility may not hinder future prosperity[J],2021,118(40).
APA	Marois G.,Gietel-Basten S.,&Lutz W..(2021).China’s low fertility may not hinder future prosperity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(40).
MLA	Marois G.,et al."China’s low fertility may not hinder future prosperity".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.40(2021).