气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2019284118
	Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions
	Smith T.P.; Flaxman S.; Gallinat A.S.; Kinosian S.P.; Stemkovski M.; Juliette T. Unwin H.; Watson O.J.; Whittaker C.; Cattarino L.; Dorigatti I.; Tristem M.; Pearse W.D.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:25
英文摘要	As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important to understand the factors that influence its transmission. Seasonal variation driven by responses to changing environment has been shown to affect the transmission intensity of several coronaviruses. However, the impact of the environment on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains largely unknown, and thus seasonal variation remains a source of uncertainty in forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we address this issue by assessing the association of temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density with estimates of transmission rate (R). Using data from the United States, we explore correlates of transmission across US states using comparative regression and integrative epidemiological modeling. We find that policy intervention (“lockdown”) and reductions in individuals’ mobility are the major predictors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates, but, in their absence, lower temperatures and higher population densities are correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Our results show that summer weather cannot be considered a substitute for mitigation policies, but that lower autumn and winter temperatures may lead to an increase in transmission intensity in the absence of policy interventions or behavioral changes. We outline how this information may improve the forecasting of COVID-19, reveal its future seasonal dynamics, and inform intervention policies. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	climate; epidemiology; SARS-CoV-2; seasonality; transmission
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; autumn; behavior change; correlational study; environmental factor; environmental temperature; evidence based medicine; health care policy; human; humidity; model; nonhuman; population density; seasonal variation; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; ultraviolet radiation; United States; virus transmission; winter; basic reproduction number; cold; communicable disease control; epidemiology; forecasting; legislation and jurisprudence; movement (physiology); prevention and control; season; Basic Reproduction Number; Cold Temperature; Communicable Disease Control; COVID-19; Forecasting; Humans; Movement; Population Density; SARS-CoV-2; Seasons; United States
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238707
作者单位	Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, SL5 7PY, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Department of Biology, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, United States; Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, United States; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith T.P.,Flaxman S.,Gallinat A.S.,et al. Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions[J],2021,118(25).
APA	Smith T.P..,Flaxman S..,Gallinat A.S..,Kinosian S.P..,Stemkovski M..,...&Pearse W.D..(2021).Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(25).
MLA	Smith T.P.,et al."Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.25(2021).