气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Pan-African evolution of within- And between-country COVID-19 dynamics

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2026664118
	Pan-African evolution of within- And between-country COVID-19 dynamics
	Ssentongo P.; Fronterre C.; Geronimo A.; Greybush S.J.; Mbabazi P.K.; Muvawala J.; Nahalamba S.B.; Omadi P.O.; Opar B.T.; Sinnar S.A.; Wang Y.; Whalen A.J.; Held L.; Jewell C.; Muwanguzi A.J.B.; Greatrex H.; Norton M.M.; Diggle P.J.; Schiff S.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:28
英文摘要	The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We created a strategy that helps predict the country-level case occurrences based on cases within or external to a country throughout the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the Human Development Index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature, and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One-week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Africa; COVID-19 modeling; Forecast; Human Development Index; Meteorology
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Africa; Article; coronavirus disease 2019; environmental temperature; human; human development; humidity; major clinical study; meteorology; pandemic; prediction; public policy; retrospective study; social care; socioeconomics; virus transmission; diagnosis; epidemiology; forecasting; isolation and purification; prevention and control; statistical model; weather; Africa; COVID-19; Forecasting; Humans; Models, Statistical; Public Policy; SARS-CoV-2; Weather
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238686
作者单位	Center for Neural Engineering, Department of Engineering Science and Mechanics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, United States; Department of Public Health Sciences, The Pennsylvania State University, College of Medicine, Hershey, PA 17033, United States; Centre for Health Informatics Computing and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YW, United Kingdom; Department of Neurosurgery, The Pennsylvania State University, College of Medicine, Hershey, PA 17033, United States; Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, United States; National Planning Authority, Kampala, Uganda; Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda; Department of Medicine, The Pennsylvania State University, College of Medicine, Hershey, PA 17033, United States; Department of Neurosurgery, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02114, United States; Epidemiology Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, Un...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ssentongo P.,Fronterre C.,Geronimo A.,et al. Pan-African evolution of within- And between-country COVID-19 dynamics[J],2021,118(28).
APA	Ssentongo P..,Fronterre C..,Geronimo A..,Greybush S.J..,Mbabazi P.K..,...&Schiff S.J..(2021).Pan-African evolution of within- And between-country COVID-19 dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(28).
MLA	Ssentongo P.,et al."Pan-African evolution of within- And between-country COVID-19 dynamics".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.28(2021).