气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2013046118
	Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption
	Black B.A.; Lamarque J.-F.; Marsh D.R.; Schmidt A.; Bardeen C.G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:29
英文摘要	The Toba eruption ∼74,000 y ago was the largest volcanic eruption since the start of the Pleistocene and represents an important test case for understanding the effects of large explosive eruptions on climate and ecosystems. However, the magnitude and repercussions of climatic changes driven by the eruption are strongly debated. High-resolution paleoclimate and archaeological records from Africa find little evidence for the disruption of climate or human activity in the wake of the eruption in contrast with a controversial link with a bottleneck in human evolution and climate model simulations predicting strong volcanic cooling for up to a decade after a Toba-scale eruption. Here, we use a large ensemble of high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM1.3) simulations to reconcile climate model predictions with paleoclimate records, accounting for uncertainties in the magnitude of Toba sulfur emissions with high and low emission scenarios. We find a near-zero probability of annual mean surface temperature anomalies exceeding 4 °C in most of Africa in contrast with near 100% probabilities of cooling this severe in Asia and North America for the high sulfur emission case. The likelihood of strong decreases in precipitation is low in most of Africa. Therefore, even Toba sulfur release at the upper range of plausible estimates remains consistent with the muted response in Africa indicated by paleoclimate proxies. Our results provide a probabilistic view of the uneven patterns of volcanic climate disruption during a crucial interval in human evolution, with implications for understanding the range of environmental impacts from past and future supereruptions. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Human evolution; Paleoclimate; Toba; Volcanism and climate
语种	英语
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238683
作者单位	Earth and Atmospheric Science, City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, United States; Earth and Environmental Sciences, Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY 10017, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08854, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 1BY, United Kingdom; Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Black B.A.,Lamarque J.-F.,Marsh D.R.,et al. Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption[J],2021,118(29).
APA	Black B.A.,Lamarque J.-F.,Marsh D.R.,Schmidt A.,&Bardeen C.G..(2021).Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(29).
MLA	Black B.A.,et al."Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.29(2021).