气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2103294118
	Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability
	Kotz M.; Wenz L.; Levermann A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:32
英文摘要	Changes in mean climatic conditions will affect natural and societal systems profoundly under continued anthropogenic global warming. Changes in the high-frequency variability of temperature exert additional pressures, yet the effect of greenhouse forcing thereon has not been fully assessed or identified in observational data. Here, we show that the intramonthly variability of daily surface temperature changes with distinct global patterns as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. In both reanalyses of historical observations and state-of-the-art projections, variability increases at low to mid latitudes and decreases at northern mid to high latitudes with enhanced greenhouse forcing. These latitudinally polarized daily variability changes are identified from internal climate variability using a recently developed signal-to-noise-maximizing pattern-filtering technique. Analysis of a multimodel ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 shows that these changes are attributable to enhanced greenhouse forcing. By the end of the century under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, daily temperature variability would continue to increase by up to a further 100% at low latitudes and decrease by 40% at northern high latitudes. Alternative scenarios demonstrate that these changes would be limited by mitigation of greenhouse gases. Moreover, global changes in daily variability exhibit strong covariation with warming across climate models, suggesting that the equilibrium climate sensitivity will also play a role in determining the extent of future variability changes. This global response of the high-frequency climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing is likely to have strong and unequal effects on societies, economies, and ecosystems if mitigation and protection measures are not taken. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric science; Climate change; Temperature variability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; climate change; economic aspect; ecosystem; filtration; global change; greenhouse gas; latitude; noise; organization; warming
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238668
作者单位	Research Department of Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, 14469, Germany; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, 10829, Germany; Department of Agriculture and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kotz M.,Wenz L.,Levermann A.. Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability[J],2021,118(32).
APA	Kotz M.,Wenz L.,&Levermann A..(2021).Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(32).
MLA	Kotz M.,et al."Footprint of greenhouse forcing in daily temperature variability".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.32(2021).