气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2105482118
	Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics
	Marani M.; Katul G.G.; Pan W.K.; Parolari A.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:35
英文摘要	Observational knowledge of the epidemic intensity, defined as the number of deaths divided by global population and epidemic duration, and of the rate of emergence of infectious disease outbreaks is necessary to test theory and models and to inform public health risk assessment by quantifying the probability of extreme pandemics such as COVID-19. Despite its significance, assembling and analyzing a comprehensive global historical record spanning a variety of diseases remains an unexplored task. A global dataset of historical epidemics from 1600 to present is here compiled and examined using novel statistical methods to estimate the yearly probability of occurrence of extreme epidemics. Historical observations covering four orders of magnitude of epidemic intensity follow a common probability distribution with a slowly decaying power-law tail (generalized Pareto distribution, asymptotic exponent = −0.71). The yearly number of epidemics varies ninefold and shows systematic trends. Yearly occurrence probabilities of extreme epidemics, Py, vary widely: Py of an event with the intensity of the “Spanish influenza” (1918 to 1920) varies between 0.27 and 1.9% from 1600 to present, while its mean recurrence time today is 400 y (95% CI: 332 to 489 y). The slow decay of probability with epidemic intensity implies that extreme epidemics are relatively likely, a property previously undetected due to short observational records and stationary analysis methods. Using recent estimates of the rate of increase in disease emergence from zoonotic reservoirs associated with environmental change, we estimate that the yearly probability of occurrence of extreme epidemics can increase up to threefold in the coming decades. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Epidemics; Extremes; Infectious diseases
语种	英语
scopus关键词	epidemic; epidemiology; global health; health survey; history; human; virology; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks; Global Health; History, 20th Century; History, 21st Century; Humans; Public Health Surveillance; SARS-CoV-2
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238657
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, 35122, Italy; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI 53233, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marani M.,Katul G.G.,Pan W.K.,et al. Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics[J],2021,118(35).
APA	Marani M.,Katul G.G.,Pan W.K.,&Parolari A.J..(2021).Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(35).
MLA	Marani M.,et al."Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.35(2021).