气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hurricane annual cycle controlled by both seeds and genesis probability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2108397118
	Hurricane annual cycle controlled by both seeds and genesis probability
	Yang W.; Hsieh T.-L.; Vecchi G.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:41
英文摘要	Understanding tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is a problem of profound societal significance and deep scientific interest. The annual cycle is the biggest radiatively forced signal in TC variability, presenting a key test of our understanding and modeling of TC activity. TCs over the North Atlantic (NA) basin, which are usually called hurricanes, have a sharp peak in the annual cycle, with more than half concentrated in only 3 mo (August to October), yet existing theories of TC genesis often predict a much smoother cycle. Here we apply a framework originally developed to study TC response to climate change in which TC genesis is determined by both the number of pre-TC synoptic disturbances (TC “seeds”) and the probability of TC genesis from the seeds. The combination of seeds and probability predicts a more consistent hurricane annual cycle, reproducing the compact season, as well as the abrupt increase from July to August in the NA across observations and climate models. The seeds-probability TC genesis framework also successfully captures TC annual cycles in different basins. The concise representation of the climate sensitivity of TCs from the annual cycle to climate change indicates that the framework captures the essential elements of the TC climate connection. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Annual cycle; Hurricane; TC seeds; Tropical cyclone
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; circannual rhythm; climate change; plant seed; probability; season; hurricane
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238618
作者单位	Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang W.,Hsieh T.-L.,Vecchi G.A.. Hurricane annual cycle controlled by both seeds and genesis probability[J],2021,118(41).
APA	Yang W.,Hsieh T.-L.,&Vecchi G.A..(2021).Hurricane annual cycle controlled by both seeds and genesis probability.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(41).
MLA	Yang W.,et al."Hurricane annual cycle controlled by both seeds and genesis probability".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.41(2021).