气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2107306118
	Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate
	Giacona F.; Eckert N.; Corona C.; Mainieri R.; Morin S.; Stoffel M.; Martin B.; Naaim M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:44
英文摘要	Snow is highly sensitive to atmospheric warming. However, because of the lack of sufficiently long snow avalanche time series and statistical techniques capable of accounting for the numerous biases inherent to sparse and incomplete avalanche records, the evolution of process activity in a warming climate remains little known. Filling this gap requires innovative approaches that put avalanche activity into a long-term context. Here, we combine extensive historical records and Bayesian techniques to construct a 240-y chronicle of snow avalanching in the Vosges Mountains (France). We show evidence that the transition from the late Little Ice Age to the early twentieth century (i.e., 1850 to 1920 CE) was not only characterized by local winter warming in the order of +1.35 °C but that this warming also resulted in a more than sevenfold reduction in yearly avalanche numbers, a severe shrinkage of avalanche size, and shorter avalanche seasons as well as in a reduction of the extent of avalanche-prone terrain. Using a substantial corpus of snow and climate proxy sources, we explain this abrupt shift with increasingly scarcer snow conditions with the low-to-medium elevations of the Vosges Mountains (600 to 1,200 m above sea level [a.s.l.]). As a result, avalanches migrated upslope, with only a relict activity persisting at the highest elevations (release areas >1,200 m a.s.l.). This abrupt, unambiguous response of snow avalanche activity to warming provides valuable information to anticipate likely changes in avalanche behavior in higher mountain environments under ongoing and future warming. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Cryosphere; Hierarchical Bayesian modeling; Historical data; Natural hazards
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; avalanche; climate change; cryosphere; France; Little Ice Age; sea level; warming; winter
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238607
作者单位	Unite de Recherche Erosion Torrentielle Neige et Avalanches (ETNA), Universite Grenoble Alpes, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environement (INRAE), Grenoble, 38402, France; Laboratoire de Geographie Physique et Environementale (GEOLAB), UniteMixte de Recherche 6042, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite Clermont-Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand, 63057, France; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de RechercheMeteorologique (CNRM), Centre d'Etude de la Neige (CEN), Universite Grenoble Alpes, Universite de Toulouse, Grenoble, Meteo-France, 38400, France; Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, 1205, Switzerland; Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, 1205, Switzerland; Department for Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, 1205, Switzerland; Centre de Recherches sur les Economies, les Societes, les Arts et les Techniques (CRESAT), Univers...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Giacona F.,Eckert N.,Corona C.,et al. Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate[J],2021,118(44).
APA	Giacona F..,Eckert N..,Corona C..,Mainieri R..,Morin S..,...&Naaim M..(2021).Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(44).
MLA	Giacona F.,et al."Upslope migration of snow avalanches in a warming climate".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.44(2021).