气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2111875118
	Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States
	Zhuang Y.; Fu R.; Santer B.D.; Dickinson R.E.; Hall A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:45
英文摘要	Previous studies have identified a recent increase inwildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 6 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex "Gigafire" occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50%of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Anthropogenic warming; Atmospheric circulation; Attribution; Fire weather; Western United States
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; climate; season; simulation; United States; vapor pressure; warming; weather; wildfire
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238601
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhuang Y.,Fu R.,Santer B.D.,et al. Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States[J],2021,118(45).
APA	Zhuang Y.,Fu R.,Santer B.D.,Dickinson R.E.,&Hall A..(2021).Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(45).
MLA	Zhuang Y.,et al."Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.45(2021).