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DOI10.1073/pnas.2026290118
Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming
Ceppi P.; Nowack P.
发表日期2021
ISSN0027-8424
卷号118期号:30
英文摘要Global warming drives changes in Earth’s cloud cover, which, in turn, may amplify or dampen climate change. This “cloud feedback” is the single most important cause of uncertainty in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)—the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Using data from Earth observations and climate model simulations, we here develop a statistical learning analysis of how clouds respond to changes in the environment. We show that global cloud feedback is dominated by the sensitivity of clouds to surface temperature and tropospheric stability. Considering changes in just these two factors, we are able to constrain global cloud feedback to 0.43 ± 0.35 W·m−2·K−1 (90% confidence), implying a robustly amplifying effect of clouds on global warming and only a 0.5% chance of ECS below 2 K. We thus anticipate that our approach will enable tighter constraints on climate change projections, including its manifold socioeconomic and ecological impacts. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词Climate change | clouds | climate feedbacks | climate modeling | climate sensitivity
语种英语
scopus关键词article; climate change; greenhouse effect; learning; simulation
来源期刊Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238466
作者单位Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Data Science Institute, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
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Ceppi P.,Nowack P.. Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming[J],2021,118(30).
APA Ceppi P.,&Nowack P..(2021).Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(30).
MLA Ceppi P.,et al."Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.30(2021).
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