气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2026290118
	Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming
	Ceppi P.; Nowack P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:30
英文摘要	Global warming drives changes in Earth’s cloud cover, which, in turn, may amplify or dampen climate change. This “cloud feedback” is the single most important cause of uncertainty in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS)—the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Using data from Earth observations and climate model simulations, we here develop a statistical learning analysis of how clouds respond to changes in the environment. We show that global cloud feedback is dominated by the sensitivity of clouds to surface temperature and tropospheric stability. Considering changes in just these two factors, we are able to constrain global cloud feedback to 0.43 ± 0.35 W·m−2·K−1 (90% confidence), implying a robustly amplifying effect of clouds on global warming and only a 0.5% chance of ECS below 2 K. We thus anticipate that our approach will enable tighter constraints on climate change projections, including its manifold socioeconomic and ecological impacts. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change \| clouds \| climate feedbacks \| climate modeling \| climate sensitivity
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; climate change; greenhouse effect; learning; simulation
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238466
作者单位	Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Data Science Institute, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ceppi P.,Nowack P.. Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming[J],2021,118(30).
APA	Ceppi P.,&Nowack P..(2021).Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(30).
MLA	Ceppi P.,et al."Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.30(2021).