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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2015552118
	Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming
	Shi H.; Tian H.; Lange S.; Yang J.; Pan S.; Fu B.; Reyer C.P.O.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:36
英文摘要	Global aridification is projected to intensify. Yet, our knowledge of its potential impacts on species ranges remains limited. Here, we investigate global aridity velocity and its overlap with three sectors (natural protected areas, agricultural areas, and urban areas) and terrestrial biodiversity in historical (1979 through 2016) and future periods (2050 through 2099), with and without considering vegetation physiological response to rising CO2. Both agricultural and urban areas showed a mean drying velocity in history, although the concurrent global aridity velocity was on average +0.05/+0.20 km/yr-1 (no CO2 effects/with CO2 effects; "+" denoting wetting).Moreover, in drylands, the shifts of vegetation greenness isolines were found to be significantly coupled with the tracks of aridity velocity. In the future, the aridity velocity in natural protected areas is projected to change from wetting to drying across RCP (representative concentration pathway) 2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. When accounting for spatial distribution of terrestrial taxa (including plants, mammals, birds, and amphibians), the global aridity velocity would be -0.15/-0.02 km/yr-1 ("-" denoting drying; historical), -0.12/-0.15 km/yr-1 (RCP2.6), -0.36/- 0.10 km/yr-1 (RCP6.0), and -0.75/-0.29 km/yr-1 (RCP8.5), with amphibians particularly negatively impacted. Under all scenarios, aridity velocity shows much higher multidirectionality than temperature velocity, which is mainly poleward. These results suggest that aridification risks may significantly influence the distribution of terrestrial species besides warming impacts and further impact the effectiveness of current protected areas in future, especially under RCP8.5, which best matches historical CO2 emissions [C. R. Schwalm et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 19656-19657 (2020)]. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Aridification; Climate velocity; Global warming; Terrestrial biodiversity
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; biodiversity; carbon footprint; climate change; climate warming; concentration (parameter); correlational study; environmental aspects and related phenomena; environmental impact; environmental parameters; geographic distribution; global aridification; global aridity velocity; land use; mean drying velocity; natural protected area; representative concentration pathway; rural area; seasonal variation; terrestrial species; urban area; vegetation
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238403
作者单位	International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, United States; State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Department of Forestry, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MI 39762, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shi H.,Tian H.,Lange S.,et al. Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming[J],2021,118(36).
APA	Shi H..,Tian H..,Lange S..,Yang J..,Pan S..,...&Reyer C.P.O..(2021).Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(36).
MLA	Shi H.,et al."Terrestrial biodiversity threatened by increasing global aridity velocity under high-level warming".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.36(2021).