气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2108783118
	Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point
	Hopcroft P.O.; Valdes P.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0027-8424
卷号	118 期号:45
英文摘要	While paleoclimate records show that the Earth System is characterized by several different tipping points, their representation within Earth System models (ESMs) remains poorly constrained. This is because historical observations do not encompass variations large enough to provoke such regime changes, and paleoclimate conditions are rarely used to help develop and tune ESMs, which potentially ignores a rich source of information on abrupt climate change. A critical example is the early to mid-Holocene "greening" and subsequent rapid desertification of the Sahara, which most ESMs fail to reproduce, casting doubt on the representation of land-atmosphere coupling and monsoon dynamics. Here, we show that this greening and abrupt termination can be successfully simulated with one ESM after optimizing uncertain model components using both present-day observations and crucially mid-Holocene (6,000 y before present) reconstructions. The optimized model displays abrupt threshold behavior, which shows excellent agreement with long paleoclimate records that were not used in the original optimization. These results suggest that in order to realistically capture climate-system thresholds, ESMs first need to be conditioned with appropriate paleoclimate information. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Abrupt climate change; Climate model; Tipping point
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; atmosphere; climate change; Holocene; North Africa; paleoclimate; simulation
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/238315
作者单位	School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom; Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hopcroft P.O.,Valdes P.J.. Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point[J],2021,118(45).
APA	Hopcroft P.O.,&Valdes P.J..(2021).Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(45).
MLA	Hopcroft P.O.,et al."Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.45(2021).