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| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4 |
| Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation | |
| Boers N. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 1758-678X |
| 起始页码 | 680 |
| 结束页码 | 688 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:8 |
| 英文摘要 | The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Climate Change
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237261 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Boers N.. Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation[J],2021,11(8). |
| APA | Boers N..(2021).Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.Nature Climate Change,11(8). |
| MLA | Boers N.."Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation".Nature Climate Change 11.8(2021). |
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