气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01099-2
	Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming
	Callahan C.W.; Chen C.; Rugenstein M.; Bloch-Johnson J.; Yang S.; Moyer E.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	752
结束页码	757
卷号	11 期号:9
英文摘要	El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary mode of interannual climate variability, and understanding its response to climate change is critical, but research remains divided on the direction and magnitude of that response. Some twenty-first-century simulations suggest that increased CO2 strengthens ENSO, but studies suggest that on palaeoclimate timescales higher temperatures are associated with a reduced ENSO amplitude and a weaker Pacific zonal temperature gradient, sometimes termed a ‘permanent El Niño’. Internal variability complicates this debate by masking the response of ENSO to forcing in centennial-length projections. Here we exploit millennial-length climate model simulations to disentangle forced changes to ENSO under transient and equilibrated conditions. On transient timescales, models show a wide spread in ENSO responses but, on millennial timescales, nearly all of them show decreased ENSO amplitude and a weakened Pacific zonal temperature gradient. Our results reconcile differences among twenty-first-century simulations and suggest that CO2 forcing dampens ENSO over the long term. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237241
作者单位	Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment and Society, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Program in Environmental Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States; Centre for Climate Research, Singapore, Singapore; Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Callahan C.W.,Chen C.,Rugenstein M.,et al. Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming[J],2021,11(9).
APA	Callahan C.W.,Chen C.,Rugenstein M.,Bloch-Johnson J.,Yang S.,&Moyer E.J..(2021).Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming.Nature Climate Change,11(9).
MLA	Callahan C.W.,et al."Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming".Nature Climate Change 11.9(2021).