气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01151-1
	Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record
	Lyu K.; Zhang X.; Church J.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	834
结束页码	839
卷号	11 期号:10
英文摘要	The ocean absorbs most of the excess heat from anthropogenic climate change, causing global ocean warming and sea-level rise with a series of consequences for human society and marine ecosystems. While there have been ongoing efforts to address large uncertainties in future projections, to date the projected ocean warming has not been constrained by the historical observations. Here, we show that the observed ocean warming over the well-sampled Argo period (2005–2019) can constrain projections of future ocean warming and that the upper-tail projections from latest climate models with high climate sensitivities are unrealistically large. By 2081–2100, under the high-emission scenario, the upper 2,000 m of the ocean is likely (>66% probability) to warm by 1,546–2,170 ZJ relative to 2005–2019, corresponding to 17–26 cm sea-level rise from thermal expansion. Further narrowing uncertainties requires maintenance of the ocean observing system to extend the observational record. © 2021, Crown.
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237226
作者单位	Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lyu K.,Zhang X.,Church J.A.. Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record[J],2021,11(10).
APA	Lyu K.,Zhang X.,&Church J.A..(2021).Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record.Nature Climate Change,11(10).
MLA	Lyu K.,et al."Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record".Nature Climate Change 11.10(2021).