气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhanced North Pacific impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01139-x
	Enhanced North Pacific impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming
	Jia F.; Cai W.; Gan B.; Wu L.; Di Lorenzo E.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	840
结束页码	847
卷号	11 期号:10
英文摘要	A majority of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are preceded by the North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM), a dominant coupled ocean–atmospheric mode of variability. How the precursory NPMM forcing on ENSO responds to greenhouse warming remains unknown. Here, using climate model ensembles under high-emissions warming scenarios, we find an enhanced future impact on ENSO by the NPMM. This is manifested by increased sensitivity of boreal-winter equatorial Pacific winds and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies to the NPMM three seasons before. The enhanced NPMM impact translates into an increased frequency of NPMM that leads to an extreme El Niño or La Niña. Under greenhouse warming, higher background SSTs cause a nonlinear evaporation–SST relationship to more effectively induce surface wind anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific, conducive to ENSO development. Thus, NPMM contributes to an increased frequency of future extreme ENSO events and becomes a more influential precursor for their predictability. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237224
作者单位	CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology/Center for Ocean Mega‐Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, China; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography and Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China and Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao, China; International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Prediction, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States; School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jia F.,Cai W.,Gan B.,et al. Enhanced North Pacific impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming[J],2021,11(10).
APA	Jia F.,Cai W.,Gan B.,Wu L.,&Di Lorenzo E..(2021).Enhanced North Pacific impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming.Nature Climate Change,11(10).
MLA	Jia F.,et al."Enhanced North Pacific impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming".Nature Climate Change 11.10(2021).