气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01156-w
	Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
	Magnan A.K.; Pörtner H.-O.; Duvat V.K.E.; Garschagen M.; Guinder V.A.; Zommers Z.; Hoegh-Guldberg O.; Gattuso J.-P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	879
结束页码	885
卷号	11 期号:10
英文摘要	The three recent Special Reports of the IPCC provide an opportunity to understand overarching climate risk, as they cover a wide diversity of risks to natural and human systems. Here we develop a scoring system to translate qualitative IPCC risk assessments into risk scores that, when aggregated, describe global risk from climate change. By the end of this century, global climate risk will increase substantially with greenhouse gas emissions compared to today (composite risk score increase of two- and fourfold under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). Comparison of risk levels under +1.5 °C and +2 °C suggests that every additional 0.5 °C of global warming will contribute to higher risk globally (by about a third). Societal adaptation has the potential to decrease global climate risk substantially (by about half) under all RCPs, but cannot fully prevent residual risks from increasing (by one-third under RCP2.6 and doubling under RCP8.5, compared to today). © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237212
作者单位	Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI-Sciences Po), Paris, France; LIENSs laboratory UMR7266, La Rochelle University-CNRS, La Rochelle, France; Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany; Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), München, Germany; Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía (IADO), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Bahía Blanca, Argentina; United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Bonn, Germany; ARC Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia; Sorbonne University, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-mer, France; Ocean Acidification and other Changes: Impacts and Solutions Initiative, Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, Monaco, Monaco; United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, United Nations Headquaters, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Magnan A.K.,Pörtner H.-O.,Duvat V.K.E.,et al. Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change[J],2021,11(10).
APA	Magnan A.K..,Pörtner H.-O..,Duvat V.K.E..,Garschagen M..,Guinder V.A..,...&Gattuso J.-P..(2021).Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change.Nature Climate Change,11(10).
MLA	Magnan A.K.,et al."Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change".Nature Climate Change 11.10(2021).