气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
	Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
	Tittensor D.P.; Novaglio C.; Harrison C.S.; Heneghan R.F.; Barrier N.; Bianchi D.; Bopp L.; Bryndum-Buchholz A.; Britten G.L.; Büchner M.; Cheung W.W.L.; Christensen V.; Coll M.; Dunne J.P.; Eddy T.D.; Everett J.D.; Fernandes-Salvador J.A.; Fulton E.A.; Galbraith E.D.; Gascuel D.; Guiet J.; John J.G.; Link J.S.; Lotze H.K.; Maury O.; Ortega-Cisneros K.; Palacios-Abrantes J.; Petrik C.M.; du Pontavice H.; Rault J.; Richardson A.J.; Shannon L.; Shin Y.-J.; Steenbeek J.; Stock C.A.; Blanchard J.L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	973
结束页码	981
卷号	11 期号:11
英文摘要	Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning. © 2021, The Author(s).
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237190
作者单位	Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Center for Marine Socio-ecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX, United States; Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Centre for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States; School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS, Sète/Montpellier, France; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; LMD/IPSL, CNRS, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France; Program in At...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tittensor D.P.,Novaglio C.,Harrison C.S.,et al. Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems[J],2021,11(11).
APA	Tittensor D.P..,Novaglio C..,Harrison C.S..,Heneghan R.F..,Barrier N..,...&Blanchard J.L..(2021).Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems.Nature Climate Change,11(11).
MLA	Tittensor D.P.,et al."Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems".Nature Climate Change 11.11(2021).