气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2020JD033578
	Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions
	Marshall L.R.; Schmidt A.; Johnson J.S.; Mann G.W.; Lee L.A.; Rigby R.; Carslaw K.S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169-897X
卷号	126 期号:13
英文摘要	Reconstructions of volcanic aerosol radiative forcing are required to understand past climate variability. Currently, reconstructions of pre-20th century volcanic forcing are derived from sulfate concentrations measured in polar ice cores, mainly using a relationship between the average ice-sheet sulfate deposition and stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden based on a single explosive eruption—the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Here we estimate volcanic radiative forcings and associated uncertainty ranges from ice-core sulfate records of eight of the largest bipolar deposition signals in the last 2,500 years using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble of aerosol-climate model simulations of explosive eruptions. Extensive sampling of different combinations of eruption source parameters using the emulators reveals that a very wide range of eruptions in different seasons with different sulfur dioxide emissions, eruption latitudes, and emission altitudes produce ice-sheet sulfate deposition consistent with ice-core records. Consequently, we find a large range in the volcanic forcing that can be directly attributed to the unknown eruption source parameters. We estimate that the uncertainty in volcanic forcing caused by many plausible eruption realizations leads to uncertainties in the global mean surface cooling of around 1°C for the largest unidentified historical eruptions. Our emulators are available online (https://cemac.github.io/volcanic-forcing-deposition) where eruption realizations for given ice-sheet sulfate depositions can be explored. © 2021. The Authors.
英文关键词	statistical emulation; sulfate deposition; volcanic aerosol; volcanic eruptions; volcanic radiative forcing
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237157
作者单位	School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Engineering and Mathematics, Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Centre for Environmental Modelling and Computation, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marshall L.R.,Schmidt A.,Johnson J.S.,et al. Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions[J],2021,126(13).
APA	Marshall L.R..,Schmidt A..,Johnson J.S..,Mann G.W..,Lee L.A..,...&Carslaw K.S..(2021).Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(13).
MLA	Marshall L.R.,et al."Unknown Eruption Source Parameters Cause Large Uncertainty in Historical Volcanic Radiative Forcing Reconstructions".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.13(2021).