气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

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DOI	10.1029/2020JD033622
	Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity
	Smith C.J.; Harris G.R.; Palmer M.D.; Bellouin N.; Collins W.; Myhre G.; Schulz M.; Golaz J.-C.; Ringer M.; Storelvmo T.; Forster P.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169-897X
卷号	126 期号:13
英文摘要	An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present-day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near-surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m−2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2-4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m−2. There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m−2 decade−1) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C). © 2021. The Authors.
英文关键词	aerosol; climate; CMIP6; forcing; historical; sensitivity
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237146
作者单位	Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Exeter, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith C.J.,Harris G.R.,Palmer M.D.,et al. Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity[J],2021,126(13).
APA	Smith C.J..,Harris G.R..,Palmer M.D..,Bellouin N..,Collins W..,...&Forster P.M..(2021).Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(13).
MLA	Smith C.J.,et al."Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.13(2021).