气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Position, Magnitude, and Size of Warm-Pool El Niño: Variability, Seasonal Predictability, and Climate Impacts

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DOI	10.1029/2021JD034917
	Position, Magnitude, and Size of Warm-Pool El Niño: Variability, Seasonal Predictability, and Climate Impacts
	Cheung P.K.Y.; Leung M.Y.T.; Zhou W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2169-897X
卷号	126 期号:14
英文摘要	This study surveys the variability and predictability of the position, magnitude, and size of warm-pool El Niño (WP El Niño), as well as its impacts on the climate. A new detection method for WP El Niño that is flexible regarding its position, magnitude, and size is developed. Thirteen WP El Niño events are found from 1950 to 2018 using this detector. These events have a mean (standard deviation) center position of 31.7 (12.4)° longitude, a mean peak sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of 1.87 (0.62) K, and a zonal size parameter of 19.99 (5.13)° longitude. Also, stronger WP El Niño events tend to be larger and take place farther east. Based on these distributions, a set of model experiments is conducted to evaluate climate sensitivity to these three features. The wintertime North American temperature dipole due to WP El Niño is chosen as an example. Its bearing is linearly controlled by the position of the SSTA field of WP El Niño, and this control is stronger when the SSTA field is stronger or smaller. Predictability of position, magnitude, and size of WP El Niño on seasonal scale by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble is examined. With a 2-month lead-time, the position and magnitude of WP El Niño are predicted accurately, but size tends to be large-biased. Increasing the lead-time generally leads to more eastward bias, cold bias, and large bias. Precision of the predictions is also reduced with lead-time. © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
英文关键词	air-sea interaction; ENSO impacts; seasonal predictability; warm-pool El Niño
来源期刊	Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/237126
作者单位	School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; School of Marine Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cheung P.K.Y.,Leung M.Y.T.,Zhou W.. Position, Magnitude, and Size of Warm-Pool El Niño: Variability, Seasonal Predictability, and Climate Impacts[J],2021,126(14).
APA	Cheung P.K.Y.,Leung M.Y.T.,&Zhou W..(2021).Position, Magnitude, and Size of Warm-Pool El Niño: Variability, Seasonal Predictability, and Climate Impacts.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,126(14).
MLA	Cheung P.K.Y.,et al."Position, Magnitude, and Size of Warm-Pool El Niño: Variability, Seasonal Predictability, and Climate Impacts".Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126.14(2021).