气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105451
	Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia
	Guo H.; Bao A.; Chen T.; Zheng G.; Wang Y.; Jiang L.; De Maeyer P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	252
英文摘要	Precipitation outputs from 30 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were evaluated from 1951 to 2014 over six climate zones in arid Central Asia (ACA) using the Climate Research Unit TS 4.04 (CRU) precipitation datasets as reference. An evaluation framework was constructed taking into account metrics of annual precipitation patterns, annual cycle precipitation statistics, categorical validation and long-term precipitation trend. The performance of GCMs vary from region to region. Compared to CRU, the 30 selected GCMs present considerable wet bias in the Southern Xinjiang (SX) and Hexi Corridor (HC) regions which can be larger than 100%. The simulated precipitation from most GCMs shows a consistent annual cycle shape and closer with that of observations in the western ACA, but fails to capture precipitation peak in NK and NX regions. Compared to NK, CD, TM and NX, all models and the full model ensemble have limited ability in reproducing the Probability Density Function (PDF) of observations over SX and HC. Most GCMs show limited competence to reproduce the long-term precipitation trend with high wet bias over the Hexi Corridor. Based on the comprehensive performance ranking, it is discovered that CESM2, CESM2-FV2, CESM2-WACCM and CESM2-WACCM-FV2 from NCAR, ACCESS-CM2 from CSIRO and CanESM5 from Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling demonstrate better performances across ACA. The ensemble of 30 selected GCMs has limited ability to accurately simulate precipitation according to the above four types of metrics. The results of this paper may provide scientific guidance to CMIP6 end-users when selecting the most suitable GCMs for their specific applications over ACA. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Arid Central Asia; CMIP6; General circulation models; Performance evaluation; Precipitation
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236873
作者单位	School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, 276825, China; Rizhao Key Laboratory of Territory Spatial Planning and Ecological Construction, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao, 276825, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, CAS-HEC, Islamabad, 45320, Pakistan; School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China; School of Geography and Tourism Science, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing, 401331, China; Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent, 9000, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo H.,Bao A.,Chen T.,et al. Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia[J],2021,252.
APA	Guo H..,Bao A..,Chen T..,Zheng G..,Wang Y..,...&De Maeyer P..(2021).Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia.Atmospheric Research,252.
MLA	Guo H.,et al."Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia".Atmospheric Research 252(2021).