气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of precipitation in CMIP6 over the Yangtze River Basin

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105406
	Evaluation of precipitation in CMIP6 over the Yangtze River Basin
	Li Y.; Yan D.; Peng H.; Xiao S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	253
英文摘要	Precipitation simulation and projection in global climate models (GCMs) play an important role in regional water resource management. Since multiple climate simulations from CMIP6 are already available, we evaluated the precipitation performance over the Yangtze River basin (YRB) from 18 models against observations during 1961–2014, before using the relevant simulations for scientific investigation and policy making. Our results suggest that CMIP6 models generally capture the increasing pattern of precipitation from the source region to the lower reaches of the YRB. However, most models overestimate precipitation (wet bias), by about 28.6% for multi-model ensemble mean (MEM). Spatially, the most significant wet bias could reach 70.1% in the source region. Seasonally, the wet bias is more pronounced in the cold season (56.2% in winter and 45.1% in spring). For precipitation change during 1961–2014, most models reproduce the observed increasing trend in the most northwest YRB, but they display large spatial discrepancies in the other regions. In CMIP6 projections (2015–2099), the precipitation over the YRB keep a consistently increasing trend under both scenarios SSP1-2.6 (14.76 mm/10a) and SSP5-8.5 (22.47 mm/10a). From near term (2015–2060) to long term (2061–2099), this wetting trend slows down under SSP1-2.6, but it accelerates under SSP5-8.5. © 2020
英文关键词	CMIP6; Future projection; Precipitation; Wet bias; Yangtze River basin
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236862
作者单位	College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, China; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Water Resources Department, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing, 100038, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li Y.,Yan D.,Peng H.,et al. Evaluation of precipitation in CMIP6 over the Yangtze River Basin[J],2021,253.
APA	Li Y.,Yan D.,Peng H.,&Xiao S..(2021).Evaluation of precipitation in CMIP6 over the Yangtze River Basin.Atmospheric Research,253.
MLA	Li Y.,et al."Evaluation of precipitation in CMIP6 over the Yangtze River Basin".Atmospheric Research 253(2021).