气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105509
	Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa
	Akinsanola A.A.; Ongoma V.; Kooperman G.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	254
英文摘要	The Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; CMIP6; ETCCDI; Extreme events; Rainfall
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236834
作者单位	Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States; School of Geography, Earth Science and Environment, The University of the South Pacific, Laucala Campus Private Bag, Suva, Fiji
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Akinsanola A.A.,Ongoma V.,Kooperman G.J.. Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa[J],2021,254.
APA	Akinsanola A.A.,Ongoma V.,&Kooperman G.J..(2021).Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa.Atmospheric Research,254.
MLA	Akinsanola A.A.,et al."Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa".Atmospheric Research 254(2021).