气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improving the Ramer scheme for diagnosis of freezing rain in China

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105520
	Improving the Ramer scheme for diagnosis of freezing rain in China
	Lu Z.; Han Y.; Liu Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	254
英文摘要	Freezing rain (FZRA) is a weather hazard that can severely impact on power transmission, transportation, communication, and the economy. Nevertheless, forecasting FZRA is still a challenging problem. The Ramer scheme, which has been widely used in freezing rain forecasting, exhibits some issues for predicting FZRA events in China. The statistical characteristics of freezing rain and prognostic weather variables observed at ground and sounding stations in China from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed. After that, several sensitivity tests were conducted on the thresholds and the combined effect of different weather variables. Based on the results of the sensitivity tests, the Ramer scheme was modified to form an Altitude-dependent Ramer Scheme (ARS). The ARS was tested by simulating 572 FZRA events from 2008 to 2017, and 26 from 2018 to 2020. The results show that the ARS was more suitable for diagnosis of FZRA in China. It improved the Critical success index (CSI) to 0.47–0.54, and reduced the false alarm rate (FAR) to 0.40–0.53 from the original Ramer Scheme. The Ramer scheme and ARS were applied to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forecast output to simulate an extreme FZRA event occurred in Southern China from 25 to 27 January 2018. In this case, the ARS significantly outperformed the original Ramer scheme in forecasting the FZRA, with CSI 148% higher and FAR 53% lower than the Ramer Scheme. The modified Ramer scheme provides more accurate information for forecasting and warning against ice accumulation on wires, road icing and other icing hazards. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Freezing rain; Meteorological factors; Ramer scheme; Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236812
作者单位	Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Precision Regional Earth Modeling and Information Center, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu Z.,Han Y.,Liu Y.. Improving the Ramer scheme for diagnosis of freezing rain in China[J],2021,254.
APA	Lu Z.,Han Y.,&Liu Y..(2021).Improving the Ramer scheme for diagnosis of freezing rain in China.Atmospheric Research,254.
MLA	Lu Z.,et al."Improving the Ramer scheme for diagnosis of freezing rain in China".Atmospheric Research 254(2021).