气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Contribution of external forcings to the observed trend in surface temperature over Africa during 1901–2014 and its future projection from CMIP6 simulations

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105512
	Contribution of external forcings to the observed trend in surface temperature over Africa during 1901–2014 and its future projection from CMIP6 simulations
	Iyakaremye V.; Zeng G.; Siebert A.; Yang X.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	254
英文摘要	Previous studies revealed that many areas in Africa experienced an apparent warming rate in surface temperature in the last century. However, the contributing factors have not been investigated in details. In the present study, natural and anthropogenic forcings accountable for surface temperature variability and change are examined from the historical Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase six (CMIP6) simulations and future projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2.4.5 and SSP5-8.5), which represent low, moderate and high emission scenarios, respectively. Results indicate that from 1901 to 2014, surface temperature has increased by ~0.07 °C/decade over both Eastern Africa (EAF) and Sahara (SAH) regions, 0.06 °C/decade in Southern Africa (SAF) and Western Africa (WAF) regions and follows the global warming trend. It is found that Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land-Use (LU) change are the leading contributors to the observed warming in historical surface temperature over Africa. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) show a cooling effect on surface temperature. Under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 emission scenarios, the surface temperature increases to 2059 and declines afterwards. On the other hand, under SSP5-8.5, the surface temperature is expected to increase throughout the 21st century. The impacts of warming will be hard-felt in SAH and SAF regions compared to other areas. The analysis of rare hot and cold events (2080–2099) based on the 20-year annual highest and lowest daily surface temperature relative to the recent past (1995–2014) under SSP2-4.5 indicates that both events are likely to increase significantly in the later 21st century. Nevertheless, proper management of Land use and control of anthropogenic factors (GHGs and AA) may lead to a substantial reduction in further warming over Africa. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Africa; CMIP6; External Forcing; Global Warming; Temperature
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236807
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Rwanda Meteorology Agency, Kigali, Rwanda; International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Iyakaremye V.,Zeng G.,Siebert A.,等. Contribution of external forcings to the observed trend in surface temperature over Africa during 1901–2014 and its future projection from CMIP6 simulations[J],2021,254.
APA	Iyakaremye V.,Zeng G.,Siebert A.,&Yang X..(2021).Contribution of external forcings to the observed trend in surface temperature over Africa during 1901–2014 and its future projection from CMIP6 simulations.Atmospheric Research,254.
MLA	Iyakaremye V.,et al."Contribution of external forcings to the observed trend in surface temperature over Africa during 1901–2014 and its future projection from CMIP6 simulations".Atmospheric Research 254(2021).