气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future extreme heat wave events using Bayesian heat wave intensity-persistence day-frequency model and their uncertainty

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105541
	Future extreme heat wave events using Bayesian heat wave intensity-persistence day-frequency model and their uncertainty
	Lee O.; Seo J.; Won J.; Choi J.; Kim S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	255
英文摘要	Heat wave events are occurring more often and over a wider area around the world, and in the coming era of global warming, their intensity will intensify and their persistence days will be longer. In this study, the relationship between the occurrence probability, intensity, and persistency days of future extreme heat wave events is explained using the concept of IDF (rainfall intensity-duration-frequency) curves for extreme rainfall events. The uncertainty of the non-stationary heat wave intensity-persistence day-frequency (HPF) model is analyzed using Bayesian inference. Non-stationary HPF curves were applied to a total of 16 future daily maximum surface air temperature ensembles projected at six major sites in Korea. From the ensemble of future climate information, it was found that the intensity of the extreme heat wave event for persistence day of 2-day estimated in 2050 would be more likely to rise in the range of 1.23–1.69 °C (under RCP 4.5) and 1.15–1.96 °C (under RCP 8.5) than that estimated in 2010. It was also found that the uncertainty resulting from parameter estimation of the HPF model was greater than the uncertainty resulting from the inter-model variability of various climate model combinations. When reflecting the uncertainty resulting from the estimation of model parameters, the 95% confidence interval of the delta change for the heat wave intensity projected in 2050 from 2010 was estimated to be 0.53–4.94 °C (under RCP 4.5) and 0.89–5.57 °C (under RCP 8.5). © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Bayesian inference; Climate change; Heat wave events; Persistence day; Uncertainty
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236796
作者单位	School of Integrated Science for Sustainable Earth & Environmental Disaster, Pukyong National University, Busan, 48513, South Korea; Division of Earth Environmental System Science (Major of Environmental Engineering), Pukyong National University, Busan, 48513, South Korea; Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan, 48513, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee O.,Seo J.,Won J.,et al. Future extreme heat wave events using Bayesian heat wave intensity-persistence day-frequency model and their uncertainty[J],2021,255.
APA	Lee O.,Seo J.,Won J.,Choi J.,&Kim S..(2021).Future extreme heat wave events using Bayesian heat wave intensity-persistence day-frequency model and their uncertainty.Atmospheric Research,255.
MLA	Lee O.,et al."Future extreme heat wave events using Bayesian heat wave intensity-persistence day-frequency model and their uncertainty".Atmospheric Research 255(2021).