气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential of stochastic methods for improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of extreme events over the Western Mediterranean

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105571
	Potential of stochastic methods for improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of extreme events over the Western Mediterranean
	Hermoso A.; Homar V.; Plant R.S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	257
英文摘要	The design of convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems capable of producing accurate forecasts of disruptive events is an extraordinarily challenging effort. The difficulties associated with the detection of extreme events found at these scales motivates the research of methodologies that efficiently sample relevant uncertainties. This study investigates the potential of multiple techniques to account for model uncertainty. The performance of various stochastic schemes is assessed for an exceptional heavy precipitation episode which occurred in eastern Spain. In particular, the stochastic strategies are compared to a multiphysics approach in terms of both spread and skill. The analyzed techniques include stochastic parameterization perturbation tendency and perturbations to influential parameters within the microphysics scheme. The introduction of stochastic perturbations to the microphysics processes results in a larger ensemble spread throughout the entire simulation. Conversely, modifications to microphysics parameters generate small-scale perturbations that rapidly grow over areas with high convective instability, in contrast to the other methods, which produce more widespread perturbations. A conclusion of specific interest for the western Mediterranean, where deep moist convection and local orography play an important role, is that stochastic methods are shown to outperform a multiphysics-based ensemble for this case, indicating the potential positive impact of stochastic parameterizations for the forecast of extreme events in the region. © 2021 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Ensemble prediction systems; Heavy precipitation episodes; Microphysics; Stochastic parameterization; Western Mediterranean
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236765
作者单位	Meteorology Group, Physics Department, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma, Mallorca, Spain; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hermoso A.,Homar V.,Plant R.S.. Potential of stochastic methods for improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of extreme events over the Western Mediterranean[J],2021,257.
APA	Hermoso A.,Homar V.,&Plant R.S..(2021).Potential of stochastic methods for improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of extreme events over the Western Mediterranean.Atmospheric Research,257.
MLA	Hermoso A.,et al."Potential of stochastic methods for improving convection-permitting ensemble forecasts of extreme events over the Western Mediterranean".Atmospheric Research 257(2021).