气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis and predictability of an extreme rainfall event over northern Taiwan in the Mei-yu season: The 2 June 2017 case

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105684
	Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis and predictability of an extreme rainfall event over northern Taiwan in the Mei-yu season: The 2 June 2017 case
	Wang C.-C.; Li M.-S.; Chang C.-S.; Chuang P.-Y.; Chen S.-H.; Tsuboki K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	259
英文摘要	In the present study, an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis (ESA) on the extreme-rainfall event along the northern coast of Taiwan on 2 June 2017 in the Mei-yu season is performed using the results from 45 forecast members with a grid size of 2.5–5 km. An quasi-stationary rainband associated with the front produced localized rainfall up to 635 mm in 12 h (0000–1200 LST 2 June), causing serious flooding and inundation near the northern tip of Taiwan. With a relatively large spread (i.e., standard deviation or σ), small ensemble mean (~130 mm), and low probability of heavy rainfall in northern Taiwan, the ensemble indicates a lower predictability there, compared to the topographic rainfall over the mountains. However, the ESA allows for identification of several contributing factors to heavy rainfall in northern Taiwan in a quantitative manner as given below. With their impact given in change of (areal-mean) 6-h rainfall amount per one σ increase, these factors include: (1) surface frontal position and moving speed (−16.00 mm per 5 km h−1), (2) position of 700-hPa wind-shift line (+12.59 mm per 0.4° latitude), (3) environmental moisture amount near the surface front (+11.73 mm per 0.92 g kg−1 in mixing ratio), (4) timing and location of frontal low-pressure disturbance (+11.03 mm per 1.38° longitude), and (5) frontal intensity (+9.58 mm per 3 K in equivalent potential temperature difference across 0.5°). While many of the factors identified are interconnected, they tend to increase the local rainfall through lengthening the duration and enhancing near-surface convergence along the northwestern coast of Taiwan over the area immediately upstream. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Ensemble forecast; Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis; Mei-yu front; Quasi-stationary rainband; Taiwan
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236703
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang C.-C.,Li M.-S.,Chang C.-S.,et al. Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis and predictability of an extreme rainfall event over northern Taiwan in the Mei-yu season: The 2 June 2017 case[J],2021,259.
APA	Wang C.-C.,Li M.-S.,Chang C.-S.,Chuang P.-Y.,Chen S.-H.,&Tsuboki K..(2021).Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis and predictability of an extreme rainfall event over northern Taiwan in the Mei-yu season: The 2 June 2017 case.Atmospheric Research,259.
MLA	Wang C.-C.,et al."Ensemble-based sensitivity analysis and predictability of an extreme rainfall event over northern Taiwan in the Mei-yu season: The 2 June 2017 case".Atmospheric Research 259(2021).