气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Opposite anomalous synoptic patterns for potential California large wildfire spread and extinguishing in 2018 cases

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105804
	Opposite anomalous synoptic patterns for potential California large wildfire spread and extinguishing in 2018 cases
	Qian W.; Ai Y.; Yu J.-Y.; Du J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	262
英文摘要	The consecutive occurrence of three large wildfires in 1 year is rarely seen in northern California including the deadliest case during 8–25 November 2018 in Butte County. They happened under favorable fuel and meteorological conditions including long-term warming trends, normal summer-autumn warm-dry climate, and extreme heated air masses with strong offshore wind. The former two meteorological conditions contribute a background for large wildfires but extreme heated air masses and strong offshore winds are critical potentials for a fire spread. The relationship between extreme heated/cooled air masses and the three large wildfires was carefully examined from their starts to extinguishing. An anomaly-based synoptic analysis method is used by separating atmospheric variables into climatology and anomalies. A 3-dimensional anomalous synoptic pattern of atmospheric variables is established for the three wildfire cases in 2018. The analysis showed that one anomalous warm-air mass in the mid-to-low troposphere dynamically associated with a positive center of geopotential height (GPH) anomalies at the upper troposphere (150–300 hPa) is an anomalous synoptic pattern indicating a potential large wildfire spread, and conversely by negative anomalies when the fires were extinguished. The ECMWF model seems to be capable of predicting such anomalous temperature-pressure patterns to indicate possible fire spread and extinguishing. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Anomalous synoptic pattern; Favorable fuel; Meteorological condition; Wildfire
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236614
作者单位	Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, 510640, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China; Department of Earth System Science, School of Physical Sciences, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, United States; Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD 20740, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qian W.,Ai Y.,Yu J.-Y.,et al. Opposite anomalous synoptic patterns for potential California large wildfire spread and extinguishing in 2018 cases[J],2021,262.
APA	Qian W.,Ai Y.,Yu J.-Y.,&Du J..(2021).Opposite anomalous synoptic patterns for potential California large wildfire spread and extinguishing in 2018 cases.Atmospheric Research,262.
MLA	Qian W.,et al."Opposite anomalous synoptic patterns for potential California large wildfire spread and extinguishing in 2018 cases".Atmospheric Research 262(2021).