气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105866
	Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery
	Fiedler S.; Wyser K.; Rogelj J.; van Noije T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	264
英文摘要	The pandemic in 2020 caused an abrupt change in the emission of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors. We estimate the associated change in the aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. To that end, we perform new simulations with the CMIP6 global climate model EC-Earth3. The simulations use the here newly created data for the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated effect on clouds from the simple plumes parameterization (MACv2-SP), based on revised SO2 and NH3 emission scenarios. Our results highlight the small impact of the pandemic on the global aerosol radiative forcing in 2020 compared to the CMIP6 scenario SSP2-4.5 of the order of +0.04 Wm−2, which is small compared to the natural year-to-year variability in the radiation budget. Natural variability also limits the ability to detect a meaningful regional difference in the anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects. We identify the best chances to find a significant change in radiation at the surface during cloud-free conditions for regions that were strongly polluted in the past years. The post-pandemic recovery scenarios indicate a spread in the aerosol forcing of −0.68 to −0.38 Wm−2 for 2050 relative to the pre-industrial, which translates to a difference of +0.05 to −0.25 Wm−2 compared to the 2050 baseline from SSP2-4.5. This spread falls within the present-day uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing and the CMIP6 spread in aerosol forcing at the end of the 21st century. We release the new MACv2-SP data for studies on the climate response to the pandemic and the recovery scenarios. Our 2050 forcing estimates suggest that sustained aerosol emission reductions during the post-pandemic recovery cause a stronger climate response than in 2020, i.e., there is a delayed influence of the pandemic on climate. © 2021 The Authors
英文关键词	Anthropogenic aerosols; CMIP6; COVID-19 pandemic; CovidMIP; Radiative forcing; Scenarios
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236587
作者单位	University of Cologne, Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, Cologne, Germany; Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics, Bonn/Cologne, Germany; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden; Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fiedler S.,Wyser K.,Rogelj J.,et al. Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery[J],2021,264.
APA	Fiedler S.,Wyser K.,Rogelj J.,&van Noije T..(2021).Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery.Atmospheric Research,264.
MLA	Fiedler S.,et al."Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery".Atmospheric Research 264(2021).