气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk changes of compound temperature and precipitation extremes in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105838
	Risk changes of compound temperature and precipitation extremes in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
	Aihaiti A.; Jiang Z.; Zhu L.; Li W.; You Q.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	264
英文摘要	Based on the simulated temperature and precipitation from CMIP6 models, the joint distribution characteristics of summer temperature and precipitation in China are described in the Copula approach. The occurrence risk of compound extremes (i.e., warm/dry, and warm/wet events) and corresponding univariate events (i.e., warm, wet, and dry events) in historical period are compared; and the risk changes of compound extremes are discussed under global warming 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Results show that: 1) the Copula approach can describe the joint probability distribution of summer temperature and precipitation in observation and model simulations in most parts of China except for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; 2) The average risk of warm and wet events in China increases by 2.3 and 1.16 times under 1.5 °C warming respectively, increases by 2.83 and 1.29 times under 2 °C warming respectively while the risk of dry events decreases in most parts of China; 3) The average of warm/wet events in China increases by 5.48 and 10.01 times under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming, respectively. Regions over Northern China and South China experience the most increased risk about more than 8 times. The warm/dry events show less increase magnitude with 1.82 and 2.04 times under two warming climates, respectively. The highest increase in risk is mainly located in Northern China. At an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C, the regional average risk of warm/dry and warm/wet events increases by 1.40 and 2.74 times, respectively. In most areas, the risk of warm/wet events increases significantly and are greater than that of warm/dry events. This indicates that controlling global warming up to 1.5 °C can avoid more intense warm/dry and warm/wet events. Our work highlights that the risk of compound extremes may be underestimated if we only consider the univariate events. © 2021
英文关键词	Compound events; Global warming; Risk changes; Warm/dry event; Warm/wet event
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236584
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, 830002, China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Room 5002-1, Environmental Science Building, No.2005 Songhu Road, Yangpu, Shanghai, 200438, China; Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System, Zhuhai, Fudan Innovation Research Institute, Zhuhai, 518057, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aihaiti A.,Jiang Z.,Zhu L.,et al. Risk changes of compound temperature and precipitation extremes in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming[J],2021,264.
APA	Aihaiti A.,Jiang Z.,Zhu L.,Li W.,&You Q..(2021).Risk changes of compound temperature and precipitation extremes in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.Atmospheric Research,264.
MLA	Aihaiti A.,et al."Risk changes of compound temperature and precipitation extremes in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming".Atmospheric Research 264(2021).