气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105868
	Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment
	Ju J.; Wu C.; Yeh P.J.-F.; Dai H.; Hu B.X.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	264
英文摘要	To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, the Paris Climate Agreement strives to limit global warming to below 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level. The large socioeconomic costs of extreme weather events make this target crucial for the impact assessments of 1.5 °C warming. Using four extreme precipitation indices, this study presents a global assessment of precipitation extremes projections under 1.5 and 2 °C warming targets based on the Community Earth System Model low warming (CESM-LWR) experiment. The uncertainties in precipitation extremes projections due to model internal variability (IV) and warming scenario (WS) are quantified by using the variance-based hierarchical uncertainty analysis. Results indicate that both warming targets are expected to exacerbate the extreme wetness events (RX1day and RX5day) and precipitation intensity (SDII) in most global regions, and to intensify the consecutive dry days (CDD) in tropical regions. The additional 0.5 °C warming will increase RX1day, RX5day and SDII over many global regions (e.g., northern high latitudes and central Africa), while decrease (increase) the frequency of CDD in northern high latitudes, central Africa, and eastern South America (in some arid regions and Amazon). Our uncertainty analysis indicates large spatio-temporal variability in the uncertainties of IV and WS. Overall, IV contributes to >80% of the uncertainties in all projected precipitation extremes and this contribution tends to diminish towards the end of this century at the interannual scale, while WS contributes to <20% of the uncertainties. IV (WS) uncertainty is the lowest (largest) in Greenland, northern Europe, Australia, northeastern and southeastern Asia, and Amazon. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	1.5 and 2 °C warming targets; CESM-LWR; Precipitation extremes projections; Uncertainty
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236552
作者单位	School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083, China; Department of Ecology and Hydrobiology, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632, China; Discipline of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Monash University, Malaysia Campus, Malaysia; State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, China; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ürümqi, 830011, China; Green Development Institute of Zhaoqing, Zhaoqing, 526000, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ju J.,Wu C.,Yeh P.J.-F.,et al. Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment[J],2021,264.
APA	Ju J.,Wu C.,Yeh P.J.-F.,Dai H.,&Hu B.X..(2021).Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment.Atmospheric Research,264.
MLA	Ju J.,et al."Global precipitation-related extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming targets: Projection and uncertainty assessment based on the CESM-LWR experiment".Atmospheric Research 264(2021).