气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future precipitation changes in Egypt under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming goals using CMIP6 multimodel ensemble

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105908
	Future precipitation changes in Egypt under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming goals using CMIP6 multimodel ensemble
	Nashwan M.S.; Shahid S.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	265
英文摘要	Rainfall projections for 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming can explain regional precipitation response to emission reductions under the Paris Agreements' goals. Assessment of such changes is vital for Egypt, a global climate change hotspot. The performance of 29 CMIP6 GCMs' hindcasts was evaluated according to their capability to replicate the spatial patterns of annual, winter, and summer precipitation for 1971–2014 to select a suitable GCM subset to form a robust multimodel ensemble (MME). The MME median was used to project precipitation and precipitation extremes of Egypt at the end of the century (2081–2100) for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, SSP1–1.9 and SSP1–2.6, representing 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming at the end of the present century, respectively. The results showed an increase in precipitation in the northern high precipitation region by 37% and 54% for SSP1–1.9 and SSP1–2.6, respectively, and a decrease in the southwestern low precipitation region by −35% for both scenarios. The projected increase would be mostly in winter and almost no change in summer. The projection of precipitation extremes revealed an increase in extreme precipitation amount in the northern coast between 0% and 14% and the longest dry spell over most of the country by 160%. The results indicate more heterogeneity in the spatial distribution in Egypt's precipitation, increasing extreme precipitation amount in some regions and dry spell length over the whole country. The results indicate a large increase in hydrological hazard susceptibility in Egypt, even if the global warming can be limited to 2 °C at the end of the century following the Paris Agreement. © 2021
英文关键词	CMIP6; Paris Agreement; Precipitation extremes; Shared socioeconomic pathways
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236527
作者单位	Construction and Building Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), Elhorria, Heliopolis, Cairo 2033, Egypt; Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Skudia, Johor 81310, Malaysia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nashwan M.S.,Shahid S.. Future precipitation changes in Egypt under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming goals using CMIP6 multimodel ensemble[J],2022,265.
APA	Nashwan M.S.,&Shahid S..(2022).Future precipitation changes in Egypt under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming goals using CMIP6 multimodel ensemble.Atmospheric Research,265.
MLA	Nashwan M.S.,et al."Future precipitation changes in Egypt under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming goals using CMIP6 multimodel ensemble".Atmospheric Research 265(2022).