气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling low carbon transition and economic impacts under SSPs and RCPs based on GTIMES

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.002
	Modelling low carbon transition and economic impacts under SSPs and RCPs based on GTIMES
	Yang L.; Shi J.-C.; Chen W.-Y.; Glynn J.; GallachÓir B.Ó.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1674-9278
英文摘要	The simulation of global and regional energy system transition and its potential mitigation cost could intuitively reflect the need for earlier climate mitigation actions. To explore the possible transitions of global and regional energy system, this study applied a 14-region energy system model (GTIMES) with scenarios designed using Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and detailed depicts the quantification of SSPs trajectories into GTIMES model. Modeling results show that: 1) Global energy-related CO2 emissions will reach 37–74 Gt by 2050 under reference scenarios, while they will decrease to 12–14 Gt under higher possibility pathways to reach 2 °C target, with ratios of non-fossil fuel round to 42%–46%. 2) Electrification level has to increase noticeably in regional transition with a global average level of about 44% to achieve significant emission reduction. 3) Higher level of mitigation cost would happen with the constraint mitigation target, as well as social and economic trajectories chosen. Therefore, following trajectories of sustainable development is necessary. © 2021 The Authors
英文关键词	CO2 emission; Energy consumption; GTIMES model; Shared social-economic pathways
来源期刊	Advances in Climate Change Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236514
作者单位	Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; MaREI Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, T12 K8AF, Ireland; School of Engineering, University College Cork, Cork, T12 K8AF, Ireland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang L.,Shi J.-C.,Chen W.-Y.,et al. Modelling low carbon transition and economic impacts under SSPs and RCPs based on GTIMES[J],2021.
APA	Yang L.,Shi J.-C.,Chen W.-Y.,Glynn J.,&GallachÓir B.Ó..(2021).Modelling low carbon transition and economic impacts under SSPs and RCPs based on GTIMES.Advances in Climate Change Research.
MLA	Yang L.,et al."Modelling low carbon transition and economic impacts under SSPs and RCPs based on GTIMES".Advances in Climate Change Research (2021).