气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations

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DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2021.04.002
	Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations
	Hu X.-M.; Ma J.-R.; Ying J.; Cai M.; Kong Y.-Q.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1674-9278
起始页码	499
结束页码	507
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	The emergent constraint approach is a way of using multi-model ensembles to identify the linkage between current/past climate variability and future climate changes, which has been widely used for narrowing down the uncertainty of multi-model projections of future climate change. Climate models of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) show a much stronger Arctic warming signal but with a larger inter-model spread. In this study, we find that the projected Arctic warming made by multi-models in CMIP6 is positively correlated with the simulated global warming trend during the period of 1981–2011 in historical runs. This enables us to tighter constraints to future warming in the Arctic by using the observed global warming during the instrument era. The fact that CMIP6 models tend to overestimate the trend of global mean surface temperature during 1981–2011, therefore, would imply a relative weak Arctic warming compared to the CMIP6 median warming projection. © 2021 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration)
英文关键词	Arctic warming projection; CMIP6; Global warming; Observational constraint
来源期刊	Advances in Climate Change Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/236470
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, 519082, China; State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou, 310012, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China; Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China; Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, 32306, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hu X.-M.,Ma J.-R.,Ying J.,et al. Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations[J],2021,12(4).
APA	Hu X.-M.,Ma J.-R.,Ying J.,Cai M.,&Kong Y.-Q..(2021).Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations.Advances in Climate Change Research,12(4).
MLA	Hu X.-M.,et al."Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations".Advances in Climate Change Research 12.4(2021).