气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How niche mismatches impair our ability to predict potential invasions

CCPortal

DOI	https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.892658
	How niche mismatches impair our ability to predict potential invasions
	Andrade; André; Velazco; Santiago José Elíaz; De Marco Júnior; Paulo
发布日期	2018-07-26
数据集类型	dataset
英文简介	Accurately anticipating potential invasions is a crucial step to deal with invasive species. The most commonly used method to identify suitable areas for invasion is to build Ecological Niche Models (ENMs); nevertheless, the accuracy of these models might be highly overestimated. We explored how biogeographical, biological and methodological factors might affect our ability to identify suitable areas for invasions. We created virtual species to control and explore disagreements between the fundamental and the available niche in the native region. First, we explored how differences in species characteristics (climatic tolerance and dispersal capacity) might hinder our ability to predict invasions with ENMs. We also evaluated how different algorithms behave under those differences. Furthermore, we measured how prediction accuracy varies throughout the world, by evaluating the degree of niche mismatch in each zoogeographic region. In general, ENMs predictions were more accurate for species with broad tolerance, while species with narrow tolerance had high levels of overprediction. We were able to distinguish algorithms by how much they under or overestimate species fundamental niche. Some zoogeographic regions are indeed more error-prone, as levels of climatic incompleteness and fundamental niche representation within the distribution vary throughout the world. We demonstrate that predicting potential invasions with ENMs might incur in wrongful niche estimation, therefore, missing potential locations for invasion. Biological factors such as species tolerance and dispersal capacity must be considered when discussing model uncertainty. Besides, algorithms had different predictions, with high levels of under or over prediction. Therefore, when it comes to invasions predictions, we must be meticulous, considering that the fundamental niche might not be adequately expressed within the native region.
语种	英语
国家	国际
学科大类	气候变化
学科子类	气候变化
文献类型	数据集
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/216126
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andrade,André,Velazco,et al. How niche mismatches impair our ability to predict potential invasions.2018-07-26.https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.892658.