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| CAREER: Modeling 19th century estuaries to address 21st century problems | |
| 项目编号 | 2014171 |
| Stefan Talke | |
| 项目主持机构 | California Polytechnic State University Foundation |
| 开始日期 | 2019-09-16 |
| 结束日期 | 02/28/2022 |
| 英文摘要 | Addressing 21st century problems such as coastal flooding, sea-level rise, and salinity intrusion requires understanding both long-term trends and spatial patterns in tides and water level. Historical observations and retrospective modeling of historical conditions are needed to fully evaluate and interpret the cause of long term trends. This study will investigate the long-term dynamics of tides and transport in the Columbia River Estuary using verifiable data to elucidate system sensitivities. Well-known, idealized insights into tidal dynamics and scalar transport will be tested in a complex environment, to test how altered local topography, wetland area, and depth have produced physical changes. The dynamical questions raised may have implications for the past development and future trajectory of estuaries globally. The project will train a graduate student and engage High School teachers and underrepresented students. This study leverages ongoing efforts to digitize 19th century data and a recently developed numerical model of the historic Columbia River Estuary. By pioneering new ways of calibrating historical models and evaluating spatio-temporal trends via historical/modern model comparison, this project will lay the groundwork for similar, future research in other strongly-altered estuaries. Using time series of water temperature back to 1854, new ground will be broken by simulating historical water temperatures. Because water temperature, like salinity, is mixed along the river/ocean continuum, it will be used to calibrate and verify salinity intrusion in both historical and modern models. This approach circumvents the lack of historical salinity data, increases model fidelity, and allows for process-based studies to determine the historical factors which have altered water levels, habitat inundation, baroclinic circulation, and transport. The primary hypotheses are: (a) Direct anthropogenic alterations, rather than climate induced changes to river flow or sea level, have dominated changes to estuary functioning since the 19th century; (b) water temperature and salinity variability was much larger in the past than today but changes in flow and channel depth have increased salinity intrusion; and (c) changes in tide propagation in the tidal river will be reflected in altered flood wave propagation: flood waves will move faster, and disperse less, than in the past. |
| 资助机构 | US-NSF |
| 项目经费 | $66,776.00 |
| 项目类型 | Continuing Grant |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/213148 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stefan Talke.CAREER: Modeling 19th century estuaries to address 21st century problems.2019. |
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