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| NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: Assessing the influence of sub-annual variability in the AMOC on the Gulf Stream and the atmosphere | |
| 项目编号 | 2023585 |
| Rhys Parfitt | |
| 项目主持机构 | Florida State University |
| 开始日期 | 2020-09-01 |
| 结束日期 | 08/31/2023 |
| 英文摘要 | This study is built on the hypothesis that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a control on weather and climate in the Northern Hemisphere. The causal link is envisioned to be through the strong air-sea heat exchange near the Gulf Stream (GS) and influence of that on the atmospheric extreme events. The role of the GS in modulating the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere has received considerable recent support. Interest in part lies in the relative persistence of GS variability compared to the atmosphere, which offers the potential for increased predictability of extreme weather events. Observations show significant variability in GS meandering on monthly timescales. A high degree of variability in the AMOC has been observed experimentally on the same monthly time scales. This provides a potential connection between the AMOC and mid-latitude weather via the GS. Modelling studies, however, have yet to agree on the relationship between the AMOC and the GS. There are many causes for these discrepancies, but an overarching explanation appears to involve (the lack of) eddy-scale resolution (less than 0.1 degree). Under prior NSF funding, this team of investigators have generated an ensemble of eddy resolving North Atlantic simulations that appear to be ideally suited to address these issues. In fact, this is currently the only eddy-resolving ensemble suite of North Atlantic model simulations in the United States. These model results will be used to systematically evaluate the relationship between the AMOC and GS variability with the influence of ocean eddies explicitly resolved. This research will lead to a better understanding of the relationship between the AMOC, the GS, and the atmosphere, on sub-annual to interannual time scales. Specifically, it will provide clarification on the mechanisms by which they interact and determine whether a robust relationship exists between the AMOC and the atmosphere on monthly timescales. Comparison with previous non-eddy resolving studies will aid in evaluating how well the current generation of models reproduce these mechanisms, whilst an improved understanding of ocean influence on the atmosphere may provide a source of untapped predictability. The AMOC has a critical role in modulating the global climate and is widely projected to change significantly in the 21st century. As such, a more complete understanding of how AMOC variability influences influential currents such as the GS, and imprints onto the atmosphere will improve both near-term forecasts and long-term projections of climate variability under warming scenarios. Comparison of results with previous studies will contribute to regional and climate model development through identifying what is required to properly capture the relevant processes. This project supports STEM education through training of two graduate students and a postdoctoral researcher in the modelling and analysis of both the ocean and the atmosphere, as well as general climate dynamics. The PIs have a strong record of commitment to mentoring undergraduates in research, and have a record of presenting seminars and meeting with undergraduate students at smaller universities that are less research-focused, to bring a broader educational experience to those students The reasoning leading from the cause (AMOC) to effect (weather/climate control) consists of three components which, in turn, are the foci of this proposal. (1) Extreme atmospheric events control mean atmospheric fields through anomalously large, but rare, contributions to the storm track. (2) These extreme atmospheric events are governed by heat exchange with the Gulf Stream (GS), and are sensitive to whether the GS is in a meandering or non-meandering state. (3) The (non)-meandering state of the GS responds to AMOC variability. The focus of the study will primarily be on those Gulf Stream attributes that have been shown to significantly influence the atmosphere locally and globally. Furthermore, additional modelling work will assess how changes in the AMOC, through its influence on GS variability, imprint on the atmosphere. This will be achieved by prescribing GS conditions in high-resolution atmosphere-only model simulations to systematically assess the dependence of atmospheric variability and surface heat fluxes on the underlying ocean. Lastly, coupled high-resolution runs will be conducted to elucidate the contribution of atmospheric feedbacks on the ocean. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. |
| 资助机构 | US-NSF |
| 项目经费 | $592,089.00 |
| 项目类型 | Standard Grant |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/212723 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rhys Parfitt.NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: Assessing the influence of sub-annual variability in the AMOC on the Gulf Stream and the atmosphere.2020. |
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