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| Ocean Heat Uptake of the Last Twenty Thousand Years | |
| 项目编号 | 2103049 |
| Geoffrey Gebbie | |
| 项目主持机构 | Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution |
| 开始日期 | 2021-05-01 |
| 结束日期 | 04/30/2023 |
| 英文摘要 | Global cooling or warming occurs when Earth has an imbalance between the energy received versus that released to space. Imbalances in this budget are difficult to detect due to the large amounts of energy that come and go at any given time. Ocean temperature is the most reliable indicator of changes in the planet’s energy budget because Earth primarily stores excess energy in the ocean. Furthermore, increases in stored energy cause ocean temperature to rise. The rate that the ocean stores more heat is the ocean heat uptake, a key measure of climate variability. Ocean heat uptake is accelerating over the last few decades, but it is unknown whether there is any precedent in Earth’s past. This study will reconstruct ocean heat uptake for the last twenty thousand years in order to put ongoing changes into context. The last twenty thousand years included enormous changes in climate, including the disintegration of large ice sheets that extended southward into much of the current United States. This time period also had large warming events with ocean heat uptake that could have rivaled the present day. The reconstruction of ocean heat uptake may benefit society by improving our understanding of how climate responds to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. In addition, this project will quantify the potential for the deep ocean and ice sheets to affect the climate of the 21st century. The project includes plans to train the next generation of ocean scientists through support for a postdoctoral researcher and integration of methods into a MIT/WHOI Joint Program graduate course. All research products will be publicly and freely accessible through archives at the National Centers for Environmental Information and GitHub. This project aims to reconstruct global ocean heat uptake for the last 20,000 years by assimilating paleoceanographic temperature data into an ocean circulation model that describes decadal, centennial, and millennial timescales of climate variability. The key methodological question is, how well can paleo-temperature observations be inverted for ocean heat uptake? The method will utilize known climate power laws that dictate that low-frequency temperature variations contain more energy than high frequencies. These power laws permit the infilling of gaps in paleo-data and a statistically-rigorous uncertainty analysis. Improved reconstructions of ocean heat uptake will address the hidden systematic errors due to the time-evolving composition of the observing system, the sparsity of observations before 1955, and the expected variability of the deep ocean. The resulting ocean heat uptake evolution connects through periods with both proxy and instrumental data, including the last deglaciation, the mid-Holocene climate optimum, the Medieval Climate Anomaly, the Little Ice Age, and the industrial era, which facilitates comparison between past and present ocean conditions. Examination of ocean heat uptake since the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 years ago) will allow a wide perspective on warming rates, and new observational evidence suggests that deglacial ocean heat uptake rivaled the present day during some time intervals. This project benefits the broader science community by producing dynamically-informed reconstructions of ocean heat uptake for the last 20,000 years, including uncertainty estimates. Ocean heat uptake is a required quantity to diagnose equilibrium and transient climate sensitivity, two key climate metrics for predicting surface temperature. Quantification of uncertainties is a necessary step toward more accurate risk assessments of future climate scenarios and has relevance to policy decisions. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. |
| 资助机构 | US-NSF |
| 项目经费 | $516,784.00 |
| 项目类型 | Standard Grant |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/212649 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Geoffrey Gebbie.Ocean Heat Uptake of the Last Twenty Thousand Years.2021. |
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