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| CAREER: Moving Beyond Equilibrium: Understanding the Ocean's Overturning Circulation in a Changing Climate | |
| 项目编号 | 1846821 |
| Malte Jansen | |
| 项目主持机构 | University of Chicago |
| 开始日期 | 2019-07-01 |
| 结束日期 | 06/30/2024 |
| 英文摘要 | Most theoretical understanding of the ocean circulation assumes that changes in surface winds and air-sea heat fluxes, the drivers of ocean circulation, are rapidly felt by the ocean. This assumption implies an instantaneous dynamic balance between changes in the drivers at the ocean surface, and ocean flow throughout the ocean (so-called steady-state equilibrium solutions). Numerical models show that the deep ocean adjustment to changes at the surface are not instantaneous, and can take many millennia, suggesting that the steady-state equilibrium approach required for theoretical studies can miss ocean responses occurring at decadal to millennial time-scales. This could have a significant impact on understanding ocean overturning circulation, and affect our ability to make accurate climate predictions. A suite of models will be developed that accounts for the time required for the ocean to respond to changes in wind forcing over these long, climate relevant time-scales. These models will be used to gain deeper insights into each of the most essential mechanisms that control changes in the ocean overturning circulation, and their combined effects. The suite will be disseminated online as open source software, and will provide researchers and students with an interactive computing experience to help them build an intuitive understanding of ocean dynamics. At the same time, it will foster the development of modern computational skills to students, something increasingly important in both research and industry. The project will train two graduate students as well as two undergraduate interns from underrepresented minorities. In addition, the project will engage with high-school students and introduce them to ocean and climate science - helping to entrain the next generation of scientists into this field. This project will develop a theoretical understanding of the nonequilibrium ocean response to changes in climate on time-scales from decades to millennia. It aims at closing the gap between observations and numerical modelling studies which demonstrate transient responses to be different than those obtained using equilibrium solutions. The proposed research focuses on two specific problems that have received wide attention in the literature, but the expectation is that the developed theoretical framework will eventually be applicable to a much wider range of questions about the ocean's role in past and future climate change. The first question addresses the time-scale dependent response of the ocean state and circulation to changes in the wind stress over the Southern Ocean. The second question addresses the ocean's time-dependent response to global warming, with applications to both anthropogenic climate change as well as glacial-interglacial climate transitions. The investigation will use a hierarchy of models of varying complexity to obtain a mechanistic understanding of the deep ocean's response to changes in the surface boundary conditions on time-scales from decades to millennia. A particular focus will be on the development of a simple model suite for the overturning circulation, which will be incorporated both in the research and educational component of this proposal. The model suite will be set up in Python for use on a laptop computer and will allow deeper insight into the most essential mechanisms that control changes in the ocean overturning circulation. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. |
| 资助机构 | US-NSF |
| 项目经费 | $482,758.00 |
| 项目类型 | Continuing Grant |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/210665 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Malte Jansen.CAREER: Moving Beyond Equilibrium: Understanding the Ocean's Overturning Circulation in a Changing Climate.2019. |
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