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| CNH2-S: Understanding the Coupling Between Climate Policy and Ecosystem Change | |
| 项目编号 | 1924378 |
| Frances Moore | |
| 项目主持机构 | University of California-Davis |
| 开始日期 | 2019-09-01 |
| 结束日期 | 02/29/2024 |
| 英文摘要 | Environmental change has the potential to fundamentally alter the functioning of ecosystems around the world with important implications for human wellbeing. However, current scientific understanding of the ecological risks posed by environmental change and their implication for society are not well represented in models used to quantify the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This project will combine ecological modeling with economic valuation of non-market goods to better incorporate two types of ecological impacts of environmental change in such a model: 1) changes in the global provision of ecosystem services caused by the altered composition, location, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and 2) the lost existence value from increasing risk of extinction for many plant and animal species. These new estimates will be integrated into computational models of the climate and economic systems to more accurately quantify the costs of increased greenhouse gas concentrations. The model will lead to better understanding of the magnitude and geographic distribution of ecological change impacts and will improve the scientific basis of regulatory analysis of extant and proposed environmental and energy policies. This project aims to better understand how increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses, via their effects on ecological systems, affect human well-being and thus improve the scientific basis for environmental policy decisions. The work integrates ecological modeling with economic analysis to quantify two major pathways by which climate change impacts on ecosystems affect human welfare: 1) changes in the value of ecosystem service provision and 2) changes in the existence value of species caused by increasing extinction risk. These impacts will be incorporated into the damage functions used by integrated assessment models (IAMs) to determine both the marginal damages of increased CO2 concentrations (i.e. the social cost of carbon) and welfare-maximizing greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. The project is divided into three components that will be fully integrated in order to answer the overarching research question. The ecological component will apply Bayesian modeling and mixed statistical-process modeling to global datasets on plant functional trait distributions and biodiversity in order to estimate the effect of climate change on ecosystem processes and species distributions, from which species extinction risk can be derived. A parallel economic component will investigate the economic costs of these changes. This component has two parts: meta-analyses of ecosystem service valuations to estimate the ecological and socio-economic determinants of the value of multiple ecosystem services; and a social revealed preference approach using species-level spending under the Endangered Species Act to place a lower-bound on the costs of extinction risk. Findings from the ecological and economic components will be integrated to produce country-level damage functions that will be introduced into cost-benefit IAM models to determine implications for marginal climate damages that can serve to inform environmental policy. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria. |
| 资助机构 | US-NSF |
| 项目经费 | $749,586.00 |
| 项目类型 | Standard Grant |
| 国家 | US |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 文献类型 | 项目 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/210545 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frances Moore.CNH2-S: Understanding the Coupling Between Climate Policy and Ecosystem Change.2019. |
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