气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A theoretical exploration of the origin and early evolution of a pandemic

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DOI	10.1016/j.scib.2020.12.020
	A theoretical exploration of the origin and early evolution of a pandemic
	Ruan Y.; Wen H.; He X.; Wu C.-I.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	20959273
起始页码	1022
结束页码	1029
卷号	66 期号:10
英文摘要	A virus that can cause a global pandemic must be highly adaptive to human conditions. Such adaptation is not likely to have emerged suddenly but, instead, may have evolved step by step with each step favored by natural selection. It is thus necessary to develop a theory about the origin in order to guide the search. Here, we propose such a model whereby evolution occurs in both the virus and the hosts (where the evolution is somatic; i.e., in the immune system). The hosts comprise three groups – the wild animal hosts, the nearby human population, and farther-away human populations. The theory suggests that the conditions under which the pandemic has initially evolved are: (i) an abundance of wild animals in the place of origin (PL0); (ii) a nearby human population of low density; (iii) frequent and long-term animal-human contacts to permit step-by-step evolution; and (iv) a level of herd immunity in the animal and human hosts. In this model, the evolving virus may have regularly spread out of PL0 although such invasions often fail, leaving sporadic cases of early infections. The place of the first epidemic (PL1), where humans are immunologically naïve to the virus, is likely a distance away from PL0. Finally, this current model is only a first attempt and more theoretical models can be expected to guide the search for the origin of SARS-CoV-2. © 2020 Science China Press
关键词	COVID-19 Epidemics Herd immunity Origin SARS-CoV-2 Viral invasion
英文关键词	Animals; Viruses; Current modeling; Herd immunities; Human conditions; Human population; Low density; Natural selection; Spread outs; Wild animals; Diseases
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science Bulletin
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/207544
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ruan Y.,Wen H.,He X.,et al. A theoretical exploration of the origin and early evolution of a pandemic[J],2021,66(10).
APA	Ruan Y.,Wen H.,He X.,&Wu C.-I..(2021).A theoretical exploration of the origin and early evolution of a pandemic.Science Bulletin,66(10).
MLA	Ruan Y.,et al."A theoretical exploration of the origin and early evolution of a pandemic".Science Bulletin 66.10(2021).