气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models

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DOI	10.1016/j.scib.2021.05.009
	Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models
	Huang X.; Ding A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	20959273
英文摘要	Weather prediction is essential to the daily life of human beings. Current numerical weather prediction models such as the Global Forecast System (GFS) are still subject to substantial forecast biases and rarely consider the impact of atmospheric aerosol, despite the consensus that aerosol is one of the most important sources of uncertainty in the climate system. Here we demonstrate that atmospheric aerosol is one of the important drivers biasing daily temperature prediction. By comparing observations and the GFS prediction, we find that the monthly-averaged bias in the 24-h temperature forecast varies between ± 1.5 °C in regions influenced by atmospheric aerosol. The biases depend on the properties of aerosol, the underlying land surface, and aerosol–cloud interactions over oceans. It is also revealed that forecast errors are rapidly magnified over time in regions featuring high aerosol loadings. Our study provides direct “observational” evidence of aerosol's impacts on daily weather forecast, and bridges the gaps between the weather forecast and climate science regarding the understanding of the impact of atmospheric aerosol. © 2021 Science China Press
关键词	Aerosol–cloud interactions Aerosol–radiation interactions Atmospheric aerosol Temperature forecast errors Weather prediction
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science Bulletin
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/207437
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China; Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of Climate Change, Nanjing, 210023, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang X.,Ding A.. Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models[J],2021.
APA	Huang X.,&Ding A..(2021).Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models.Science Bulletin.
MLA	Huang X.,et al."Aerosol as a critical factor causing forecast biases of air temperature in global numerical weather prediction models".Science Bulletin (2021).