气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The influence of anthropogenic climate change on wet and dry summers in Europe

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DOI	10.1016/j.scib.2021.01.020
	The influence of anthropogenic climate change on wet and dry summers in Europe
	Christidis N.; Stott P.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	20959273
起始页码	813
结束页码	823
卷号	66 期号:8
英文摘要	Understanding the role of anthropogenic forcings in regional hydrological changes can help communities plan their adaptation in an informed manner. Here we apply attribution research methods to investigate the effect of human influence on historical trends in wet and dry summers and changes in the likelihood of extreme events in Europe. We employ an ensemble of new climate models and compare experiments with and without the effect of human influence to assess the anthropogenic contribution. Future changes are also analysed with projections to year 2100. We employ two drought indices defined relative to the pre-industrial climate: one driven by changes in rainfall only and one that also includes the effect of temperature via changes in potential evapotranspiration. Both indices suggest significant changes in European summers have already emerged above variability and are expected to intensify in the future, leading to widespread dryer conditions which are more extreme in the south. When only the effect of rainfall is considered, there is a distinct contrast between a shift towards wetter conditions in the north and dryer in the south of the continent, as well as an overall increase in variability. However, when the effect of warming is also included, it largely masks the wet trends in the north, resulting in increasingly drier summers across most of the continent. Historical index trends are already detected in the observations, while models suggest that what were extremely dry conditions in the pre-industrial climate will become normal in the south by the end of the century. © 2021 Science China Press
关键词	Anthropogenic climate change Attribution European droughts European floods Hydrological extremes
英文关键词	Climate models; Dryers (equipment); Rain; Anthropogenic climate changes; Anthropogenic contribution; Drought indices; Effect of temperature; Historical trends; Human influences; Hydrological changes; Potential evapotranspiration; Climate change
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science Bulletin
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/207374
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3 PB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Christidis N.,Stott P.A.. The influence of anthropogenic climate change on wet and dry summers in Europe[J],2021,66(8).
APA	Christidis N.,&Stott P.A..(2021).The influence of anthropogenic climate change on wet and dry summers in Europe.Science Bulletin,66(8).
MLA	Christidis N.,et al."The influence of anthropogenic climate change on wet and dry summers in Europe".Science Bulletin 66.8(2021).